Wednesday 12 August 2020

Singapore's recession deepens with worst ever quarterly contraction of 13.2% on a year-on-year basis in Second Quarter 2020

Singapore will not return to pre-COVID-19 world, must chart a new path now: Chan Chun Sing
92,000 jobs, traineeships committed as of end-July, 7 in 10 are PMET roles
By Ovais Subhani, Senior Correspondent, The Straits Times, 12 Aug 2020

Singapore suffered its deepest economic slump on record in the second quarter, prompting the Government to trim its growth outlook for the year and warn of more job losses.

With the pandemic still raging, the road to recovery is likely to be long and rough, said Minister for Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing.

The economy is expected to shrink between 5 per cent and 7 per cent this year, said the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), dialling down its previous forecast of a 4 per cent to 7 per cent contraction.

The circuit breaker measures exacted a steep toll during the second quarter, as the economy shrank 13.2 per cent from a year earlier.

"This is our worst quarterly performance on record," said Mr Chan. "The forecast for 2020 essentially means the growth generated over the past two to three years will be negated.

"Some are still hoping for a quick recovery, and a return to the familiarity of the old normal. The painful truth is this - we are not returning to a pre-COVID world, recovery will be some time yet and is not likely to be smooth," he told reporters at a virtual briefing yesterday.



While the circuit breaker measures from April 7 to June 1 ate into domestic demand, external demand also remained weak on account of the global downturn.

Demand is expected to pick up as domestic consumption gets back on track and lockdowns are lifted elsewhere, said Permanent Secretary for Trade and Industry Gabriel Lim. The gross domestic product is likely to shrink more gradually in the third and fourth quarters, year on year.

However, there is still considerable uncertainty over future growth prospects, Mr Lim said.

"Many of Singapore's key final demand markets... are also expected to experience a more gradual pace of recovery in the second half of 2020 due to the threat of localised outbreaks," he noted.



While a shrinking economy could hurt the job market further, efforts are under way to cushion the blow.

Manpower Minister Josephine Teo said yesterday that a key focus now is to help companies retain as many of their workers as possible.

About 92,000 jobs, traineeships or work attachments have been made available to job seekers, as part of the SGUnited Jobs and Skills Package. Most of these are roles for professionals, managers, executives and technicians.

About 24,000 of these positions were filled as at the end of last month, which is "quite encouraging", said Mrs Teo. About six in 10 are short-term positions for up to 12 months.



However, the labour market is expected to remain soft in the coming quarter, noted the Ministry of Manpower's divisional director for planning and policy Kenny Tan. "Businesses will still remain very cautious about hiring, so there's a dampening of hiring demand, and we will expect increased pressure to retrench," he said.

Ms Selena Ling, head of treasury research and strategy at OCBC Bank, said external demand will remain relatively weak, with major economies like the United States, Australia and Hong Kong combating localised outbreaks, coupled with delays in the reopening of international borders.



Enterprise Singapore upgraded yesterday its 2020 forecasts for non-oil domestic exports, projecting 3 per cent to 5 per cent year-on-year growth, compared with an earlier estimate of a 1 per cent to 4 per cent fall. This is partly because demand in the electronics and precision engineering clusters could continue to remain strong in the second half of the year.

Another bright spot is the biomedical manufacturing cluster, being driven by the demand for pharmaceutical and biological products.

The growing demand for digital payment services and for digital solutions is also expected to keep the finance and information and communications sectors robust.

However, MTI expects the downturn in construction and marine and offshore engineering to deepen.



















Singapore must chart new path as it won't return to pre-COVID world: Chan Chun Sing
Republic has to start building new economy now and create more job opportunities
By Grace Ho, Senior Political Correspondent, The Straits Times, 12 Aug 2020

Singapore will not return to a pre-COVID-19 world, and must chart a new path by building a new economy now, said Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing.

At a press conference yesterday where it was announced that Singapore's economy contracted 6.7 per cent in the first half of this year and is expected to shrink by between 5 per cent and 7 per cent this year, Mr Chan said the "painful truth" is that the country will not return to a pre-COVID-19 world.

He said recurring waves of infection and disruption mean that recovery will take time and will be uneven across sectors. "Some sectors will progressively recover, while others will be permanently changed."

He also cautioned that the current crisis is unlike the 1998 Asian financial crisis or 2009 global financial crisis where "if we hunker down, things will improve in a few months".

"If we wait it out, we will likely be in worse shape than we are now," he said, adding that the Republic must start now to build a new economy and create more job opportunities for people. "We cannot wait for COVID-19 to blow over."



WORLD HAS CHANGED

There are four ways in which the world has changed irrevocably, said Mr Chan.

First, the geopolitical environment which allowed Singapore to thrive in the last 50 years has changed.

Competition and tension between the major powers now permeate not just politics, but also trade, technology and security, he said.

Citing the example of messaging platforms, he said that when Singaporeans do business in China, they communicate with their Chinese counterparts via WeChat and cannot access WhatsApp. The converse could be true in the United States in future.

He said: "We must avoid being caught between the conflicts of the major powers, or be stranded in a fragmenting world of trade relations and technological standards."



Second, global companies are re-organising their production and supply chains, reviewing the need for regional headquarters and where their factories are sited. Many are shifting from a focus on efficiency or "just in time" to resilience or "just in case".

Mr Chan said that for some manufacturers, this means a "China plus one" strategy with an active focus on Asean.

This means that while some new investments may come Singapore's way, existing ones may also move to other countries.

"If we do not adapt quickly, we will be bypassed," cautioned Mr Chan, pointing out that the country must enhance its critical advantages, such as intellectual property protection and legal certainty.

The changing nature of tax - from taxing digital activity to pressuring companies to do more in their home countries - could also affect companies' decisions to invest in Singapore, he added.

Third, he said, jobs have changed, and remote work means those in other countries can do Singaporeans' jobs from their homes.

This will affect many PMETs or professionals, managers, executives and technicians, whose jobs can either be done virtually, or through automation and artificial intelligence.

Fourth, the shrinking economic pie will produce more social friction - between those who have more and those with less; and between foreigners and locals, or even between citizens and permanent residents, he said.

Even as there are calls for greater protection and redistribution of income, he urged Singaporeans not to isolate themselves from the world.

"Without the world as our hinterland and market, we will reduce Singapore's economic manoeuvring space, and limit rather than expand opportunities for our people," he said.

Instead, he added, those affected by job and business losses should be better taken care of in a sustainable way that is "not divisive, affirms the dignity of work and strengthens our social fabric".



THREE PRINCIPLES FOR SINGAPORE

Singapore must hold on to three principles as it charts this new path, he said.

First, it will be open for business in a safe and sustainable way.

It will isolate impacted COVID-19 clusters quickly and tightly and learn from the experience of others.

The spectrum of activities will be managed proportionately, with tighter measures for higher-risk activities.

"Above all, if we each exercise social responsibility, we can permit more activities with less risk," he said.

Second, the Government will help businesses and workers adjust to the new world.

Firms with good opportunities in areas such as biopharma, supply chains and precision engineering will be given a boost. There will be a conducive and attractive environment for new businesses to start up and plant their investments here for the long term, Mr Chan said.



Beyond the value-add captured, such efforts are about building resilient and sustainable systems for the future, he said.

Firms that have suffered a drop in demand but will eventually recover, will get help to preserve their core capabilities so as to emerge stronger.

Existing support such as the Jobs Support Scheme of wage subsidies and rental relief schemes, he said, should be redirected towards helping firms generate fresh revenue and become more cost-efficient.

For industries that are permanently changed - such as tourism and entertainment - there will be help for them to reinvent themselves, and pivot into new markets and products, said Mr Chan.

"We know that these are tough decisions to make. But the faster we adapt and change, the faster our recovery."

Third, the Government will establish "the right macro conditions", including strengthening Singapore's links to the global markets for supplies, technology and talent.

The Republic's aviation and port hub status can never be taken for granted, and more will be revealed on this in the coming weeks, Mr Chan said.

He added that the digital free trade agreements that Singapore has inked will open more markets for its businesses, while preserving existing access to conventional markets.

The Government will also train Singaporeans for the jobs of tomorrow and strengthen job matching efforts.



Mr Chan gave the assurance that despite the crisis of a generation, Singapore is starting from a much stronger position than the Pioneer and Merdeka generations - given its reputation for connectivity, strong tripartite relationships and the rule of law, and a highly skilled and educated workforce.

He promised that despite the challenges, the Government's commitment to every Singaporean remains the same.

"We will do our utmost to prepare our people for the challenges ahead, for us not only to survive, but to thrive in the new environment, and we will not wait for the COVID-19 situation to blow over," he said.

"We will start now, refreshing our economy and building those new opportunities for our people and the next generation."
















































92,000 new jobs, training positions generated as at end-July 2020
24,000 placements made as at July 31, with around 40% of them for PMET roles
By Choo Yun Ting, The Straits Times, 12 Aug 2020

A combined effort by the public and private sectors has generated around 92,000 new positions - jobs, traineeship and attachment opportunities - it was announced yesterday.

About seven in 10 of them were professional, manager, executive and technician (PMET) roles, said Manpower Minister Josephine Teo, who gave a breakdown of the numbers as at July 31 during a briefing yesterday.



She noted that about half of the 92,000 roles are either significantly funded by the Government - whether through subsidies to help companies take on people as trainees or on attachments - or were jobs offered by government agencies.

The other 42,000 placements are mostly long-term positions offered by private firms.

Long-term positions refer to job or training placements that extend beyond 12 months and are not limited to permanent positions. Short-term roles last up to 12 months.

Mrs Teo also noted in her weekly jobs report that about 24,000 people had been placed into either employment or training roles as at July 31, with about 60 per cent of those in short-term positions.

Around 40 per cent of the 24,000 placements are for PMET positions.



Mrs Teo cited the example of Mr Alvin Lim, a displaced worker who found new work opportunities after retrenchment.

The Straits Times reported last month that Mr Lim, 48, now heads a team of field surveyors who collect data on the labour market for the Ministry of Manpower, a role he landed after receiving advice from a career coach.

Mrs Teo said she hopes Mr Lim's resilience will encourage other job seekers not to turn down unfamiliar or temporary positions because these could lead to something more permanent.



While the labour market has softened, there are still pockets of hiring, she added, noting that the Government will begin featuring hiring sectors as well as job opportunities as Singapore moves towards recovery.

Mrs Teo pointed to the key manufacturing sector, noting that while overall employment has contracted, there are still "pockets of hiring" in segments such as electronics and precision engineering.

There are at least 1,000 manufacturing positions yet to be filled, she said.

"We still hope that job seekers may consider giving these opportunities a try because they do allow you to gain relevant experience, and hopefully when the company is in a position to hire into permanent positions, you will be in a better place to access these opportunities," Mrs Teo added.

Workforce Singapore has held more outreach initiatives to help people navigate the jobs and training landscape.

Almost 1,000 opportunities in sectors such as early childhood education, logistics, manufacturing, food and beverage, and retail were available across 11 walk-in interviews held last month. More than 40 career workshops and seminars were also organised last month and were attended by around 2,700 people.



Mrs Teo responded to a question on whether the Jobs Support Scheme will be extended by noting that the Government is "looking actively" at whether broad-based support is still needed, adding that Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, who is also Finance Minister, will address this "quite soon".
























*  DPM Heng Swee Keat assures business, union leaders of continued support
He has been having intensive talks with agencies to review schemes
By Lim Yan Liang, The Straits Times, 13 Aug 2020

Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat has assured business and union leaders that workers and companies will continue to get support as the recession deepens and the Jobs Support Scheme (JSS) ends.

Mr Heng, who is also Coordinating Minister for Economic Policies and Finance Minister, said he has been having intensive discussions with government agencies to review and adjust these schemes as the situation develops.

His comments are the first hint since the latest economic numbers were released on Tuesday that support measures may taper off rather than just come to a stop. Singapore's economy contracted 6.7 per cent in the first half of this year and is expected to shrink by between 5 per cent and 7 per cent this year.



Mr Heng said in a Facebook post last night that he and Manpower Minister Josephine Teo, Minister of State for Trade and Industry Low Yen Ling, and labour chief Ng Chee Meng had spent the past two days meeting business and union leaders to discuss the effectiveness of support measures the Government had rolled out in the last few months to help companies keep their workers employed.

He noted that their discussions took place against the backdrop of Singapore's worst quarterly gross domestic product performance, and as some schemes like the JSS, which helps co-fund the first $4,600 of monthly wages of local workers, are ending soon.

"Participants acknowledged that these schemes cannot continue indefinitely, but asked how support for our businesses and workers will change in the coming months.

"I assured them of our continued commitment to support our workers and companies. I have also been having intensive discussions with our agencies to review and evolve our schemes as the situation develops," he said.



Mr Heng added that while the road to economic recovery will be long and Covid-19's impact on the labour market could yet deepen, it was uplifting to hear of firms finding ways to cope with the crisis.

Some have pivoted away from their current businesses to new areas that play to their core strengths.

Many have accelerated their digitalisation plans and expanded their online offerings, he noted.

"Some are sourcing for opportunities abroad through online business engagements. In the process, they are also reskilling their workers and redesigning jobs to take on these new opportunities."

Many ideas were also generated on how to leverage the tripartite relationship between the Government, labour unions and enterprises to help Singaporeans build new skills and adapt to the post-Covid-19 world, he added.

"Overall, the gravity of our economic situation weighed heavily on the minds of our business and union leaders," said Mr Heng.

"The road ahead will be tough, but with determination and a spirit of enterprise and collaboration, we can come out of this crisis stronger."



Yesterday, Mrs Teo and her Manpower Ministry colleagues, Second Minister Tan See Leng and Senior Minister of State Zaqy Mohamad, also held a dialogue with young business leaders from the Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Mrs Teo said the conversation showed business leaders "had a pulse on the job situation", and raised ideas on ways to match more locals with jobs in sectors such as renewable energy and information and communications technology.

She said: "I look forward to speaking to many more from the business community as we work together to emerge stronger from the crisis."













Members of the public to get weekly updates on job market in Singapore
By Choo Yun Ting, The Straits Times, 12 Aug 2020

Members of the public will get regular updates on the job market, including employment opportunities and retrenchments, through weekly reports by the Ministry of Manpower in the coming months.

The reports will provide "a comprehensive look at what's happening in the labour market", Manpower Minister Josephine Teo told a briefing yesterday.


Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing said unions, trade associations and employers will be involved in the collective effort to provide updates on the economy and job situation by sector.

The Government will discuss with company bosses how they can work together to get Singapore through the crisis, he added.

Yesterday's jobs report noted that Workforce Singapore (WSG) organised 59 outreach activities last month alone, more than the number that is normally held over an entire year, Mrs Teo said.

WSG has also deployed information kiosks in neighbourhoods to raise awareness of schemes under the SGUnited Jobs and Skills Package, with over 5,700 people engaged through five pop-up kiosks last month.














Pandemic, circuit breaker cut GDP by $11 billion, but Budget support helped: Ministry analysts
By Grace Ho, The Straits Times, 12 Aug 2020

The pandemic and circuit breaker measures this year lowered Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP) by $11 billion and led to a spike in unemployment - but both could have been higher if not for the four rounds of Budget support measures.

These and other findings were published in a feature article by the Trade and Industry and Finance ministries yesterday, in conjunction with the release of estimates that said Singapore's GDP will shrink by 5 per cent to 7 per cent this year.

"The circuit breaker measures, which were necessary to reduce the community spread of COVID-19 and save lives, had a negative impact on the economy," said the article, which was written with input from the Monetary Authority of Singapore.



The measures - including the closure of workplaces and travel curbs - took effect on April 7, and were tightened two weeks later.

The widespread closures - and subsequent extension of the circuit breaker to June 1 - shaved $11 billion, or 2.2 per cent, off Singapore's annual real GDP, said the ministry analysts.

They explained that the number was derived from the estimated value-add lost due to firms' inability to operate at their physical workplaces during this period.

It does not include sector-specific restrictions that remained in place after June 1, such as the later resumption of retail activity at physical outlets and dining-in service on June 19, as well as delays in the restart of construction and marine and offshore engineering activities due to the outbreak in foreign worker dormitories.

They added that the four Budgets amounting to $93 billion, or almost 20 per cent of Singapore's GDP, had stemmed a further loss of 5.5 per cent in real GDP - and reduced the increase in the resident unemployment rate by 1.7 percentage points.

Taken alone, the Jobs Support Scheme, which subsidises wages to help firms retain local workers, is expected to take 0.9 percentage point off the resident unemployment rate for citizens and permanent residents this year.

"This implies that, without the Budget measures, the economy could have contracted by a larger magnitude," said the analysts, adding that the four Budgets - rolled out from February to May - have supported livelihoods and prevented even more significant disruption to income and cash flows.



The Budget measures include financing schemes and rental relief for firms, productivity and IT solution grants, wage and training support, cash payouts for the self-employed, as well as social assistance schemes such as the Temporary Relief Fund and COVID-19 Support Grant.

They acknowledged that these estimates do not take into account the longer-term impact of the pandemic, which will lead to economic scarring for many countries.

"The US and EU took six years to about a decade respectively for their labour markets to recover to what they were like prior to the global financial crisis (in 2009)," they said. "Effective short-term management, however, could avoid long-term impairment."

The impact of the Budgets may also not be felt immediately due to the economic uncertainty and the gradual resumption of consumption and investments, they said.

But, they added, the Budgets contribute to the longer-term objective of helping viable firms stay afloat and facilitating a quicker recovery. "Apart from these economic benefits, there will also be positive externalities from the public health management measures that have been put in place to safeguard Singapore from COVID-19."

























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