Census 2020: Singapore population growth at slowest pace since 1965

More staying single while those who marry are having fewer babies, latest census shows

By Grace Ho, Senior Political Correspondent, The Straits Times, 17 Jun 2021

Singapore's population grew at its slowest pace since independence, with more residents staying single and even those who marry having fewer babies.

The nation's sixth census since independence in 1965 also found other key trends set in motion decades ago to have solidified further. Singapore residents of all ages and races are now better educated and more do not consider themselves as having a religion.

Conducted once every 10 years, the census is the largest national survey undertaken here on key characteristics of the population such as demographic, social, economic and employment trends.

More findings from the Census of Population 2020 will be released tomorrow.

Over the past 10 years, Singapore's total population grew by 1.1 per cent each year - the lowest decade of growth since independence.

The number of citizens grew from 3.23 million to 3.52 million, while the number of permanent residents held steady at around half a million.

The population is ageing. Those aged 65 years and older formed 15.2 per cent of the resident population last year, a marked rise from 9 per cent in 2010.

In a trend that has implications for continued population growth, the proportion of singles rose across all age groups over the past 10 years, with the sharpest increase among younger Singaporeans aged 25 to 34 years.

Less-educated men were more likely to stay single, whereas the opposite was true of women.

Women, especially if they were more educated, had fewer children. The average number of children born per resident woman aged 40 to 49 years who had ever been married fell from 2.02 in 2010 to 1.76 last year.

Within this age group, women who were university graduates had an average of 1.66 children last year - marking a steady decline from 1.74 children 10 years ago and 1.95 in 2000.

Singaporeans are also better educated. Among residents aged 25 years and over, almost six in 10 (58.3 per cent) attained post-secondary or higher qualifications, up from less than half (46.5 per cent) in 2010. The Chinese, Malay and Indian communities all saw improvements.

Women closed the educational gap with men in each successive cohort. When it came to those aged 25 to 34 years, the proportion of women (90.2 per cent) with post-secondary or higher qualifications exceeded men (90 per cent).

English was the language most frequently spoken at home for 48.3 per cent of residents aged five years and over last year, up from 32.3 per cent in 2010. Most of them also spoke a vernacular language at home.

There are growing numbers of Singaporeans who cite no religious affiliation.

The proportion was 20 per cent last year, up 3 percentage points from a decade ago. This number was 15 per cent in 2000.

The increase took place across all age groups and most types of educational qualifications.

At a media briefing on Monday, Minister in the Prime Minister's Office Indranee Rajah said the census data showed Singaporeans had enjoyed significant progress over the past 10 years, and that the country remains multiracial, multi-religious and multilingual.

Observing that Singapore citizens account for a greater proportion of population growth in this decade, she said: "Singaporeans who wish to start and raise families remain a priority because we want to grow the Singapore population, the Singapore core. At the same time, we have to supplement our population with some immigration, because we also need to support our economy. But that has to be very carefully calibrated."

GE2020: Half-time-report

Singapore GE2020: 6 key election issues, from jobs, COVID-19 to population
Insight looks at six issues that have surfaced as the campaign for GE2020 enters Day 6 today, 5 July 2020






Safeguarding Singaporeans' jobs in a crisis
By Grace Ho, Senior Political Correspondent, The Sunday Times, 5 Jul 2020

With a global recession looming, political parties made their case for how they would keep Singaporeans in jobs and tackle unemployment.

The ruling People's Action Party (PAP) has put jobs front and centre of its election messaging, making it a key prong of its manifesto titled, Our Lives, Our Jobs, Our Future.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong pointed out that the Economic Development Board was able to attract $13 billion in new investments in the first quarter of this year, which will generate several thousand jobs over the next few years. In a video message on Wednesday, he said this was possible because investors know the Singapore Government has strong popular support and can get backing for "policies that will grow the economy, attract talent and investment, and eventually create jobs for Singaporeans".

"In a crisis, it is even more critical for us to reinforce these fundamentals, in order to attract more investments and jobs to Singapore," he added.

Manpower Minister Josephine Teo disclosed last Friday that 12,000 have been placed in new jobs under the SGUnited Jobs Initiative since March, as part of the Government's efforts to create more opportunities for work and traineeships amid the economic crisis brought on by the pandemic.

Jobs was also a central topic in a live debate last Wednesday.

Workers' Party (WP) candidate Jamus Lim highlighted the party's proposals for a national minimum take-home wage of $1,300 a month for full-time work, as well as a redundancy insurance scheme.

The scheme would see workers pay $4 a month, matched by employers, into an Employment Security Fund, and retrenched workers would receive a payout equivalent to 40 per cent of their last-drawn salary for up to six months, capped at $1,200 a month.

Progress Singapore Party (PSP) candidate Francis Yuen said Singaporeans have to get priority in jobs, by freeing up jobs held by foreign professionals, managers, executives and technicians (PMETs).

"We believe that we need foreign PMETs to complement, but we need to believe that there is opportunity for us to slow it down," he said. On small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), he highlighted the need for them to thrive and prosper, to keep jobs available to Singaporeans.

MOM's Mrs Teo later said that the Government has taken pains to ensure Singaporean jobs are protected, by tightening foreign worker policies over the years. The schemes rolled out in the recent Budgets were specifically targeted to offer wage support for Singaporeans, signalling to employers that they should hold on to their local workers, while shedding foreign workers if need be.



FOCUS ON JOB SECURITY

The PAP's Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, who is also Foreign Minister, said job security is at the forefront of PAP's campaign. Citing the Jobs Support Scheme, which subsidises wages so that firms can retain workers, he said the Government was in effect paying three-quarters of the median wage of Singaporeans during the circuit breaker.

He also pointed to measures such as the income relief scheme for the self-employed and the SGUnited Jobs and Skills Package that will create 100,000 opportunities in the form of jobs, traineeships and paid skills training places.

He said: "(We have provided) emergency treatment and are looking beyond the horizon. And that's what we have been focused on - jobs, jobs, jobs."

GE2020 Political Debate: PAP, PSP, WP and SDP candidates take part in 'live' General Election debate on 1 July 2020

By Jalelah Abu Baker and Lianne Chia, Channel NewsAsia, 2 Jul 2020

Candidates from four political parties that are contesting the most seats in the General Election debated a wide range of issues on Wednesday (Jul 1), including unemployment, helping businesses and social mobility.

Moderated by CNA Digital Chief Editor Jaime Ho, candidates from three opposition parties - the Workers’ Party (WP), Progress Singapore Party (PSP) and Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) - as well as the incumbent People’s Action Party (PAP), took part in the debate that was broadcast "live" on Wednesday.



The show was split into two segments. In the first segment, the candidates were given the chance to respond to three questions on several topics.

In the second segment, the candidates were given time to ask one another questions in a structured sequence.

Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan represented the PAP, while the WP was represented by economist Jamus Lim. The SDP's representative was its chief, Mr Chee Soon Juan, and the PSP was represented by Mr Francis Yuen, a former Republic of Singapore Air Force colonel.

Invitations to participate were sent immediately on Tuesday after the nomination process ended and the number of seats being contested by each party was confirmed.



SEGMENT 1: DEALING WITH RISING UNEMPLOYMENT 

In the first segment of the hour-long programme titled "Singapore Votes 2020 – The Political Debate", the three opposition candidates were each given one-and-a-half minutes to respond to questions from Mr Ho, while the PAP was given four-and-a-half minutes.

The candidates were asked how their parties would deal with rising unemployment, create jobs for Singaporeans young and old and improve the lives of Singaporeans despite the bleak economic outlook here and around the world.



Responding first, Mr Yuen, who is contesting in Chua Chu Kang GRC, noted that “a lot” of foreign professionals, managers, executives and technicians (PMETs) - about 400,000 - work here, while more than 100,000 of local PMETs are jobless.

”We believe that we need foreign PMETs to complement but we do believe that there is opportunity for us to slow it down,” he said.

In a clarification issued on Thursday morning, the Ministry of Manpower said Mr Yuen's figure of 100,000 local unemployed PMETs is incorrect. There were 39,000 local unemployed PMETs as of June 2019, according to the labour force report released on Jan 30, 2020, the ministry said.

Mobile Access for Seniors: Low-income seniors to get mobile data plans that cost as little as $5 a month from July 2020

One-year plans to be offered by four telcos from July under national scheme; no charges for excess data used
By Lester Wong, The Straits Times, 30 Jun 2020

From next month, low-income seniors will be able to sign up for more affordable one-year mobile data plans that cost as little as $5 a month for 5GB, as part of a national initiative to get them connected online.

Basic smartphones starting at $20 will be bundled with the mobile plans under the Mobile Access for Seniors scheme, which was announced yesterday by the Infocomm Media Development Authority.

There will also be no excess data charges, though surfing speeds will be limited should seniors inadvertently exceed their data limits.

The plans will be offered by Singtel, StarHub, M1 and TPG Telecom. Seniors have to be aged 60 and above, and be receiving ComCare assistance or living in HDB Public Rental Scheme housing, to qualify for the new scheme.

"Seniors worry about the knowledge part (when going digital) - 'Who can help me'? Another major concern they have is about cost, and I think this subsidised plan addresses that concern," said Communications and Information Minister S. Iswaran yesterday when unveiling the mobile data plans.

He added that the absence of excess data charges is an "important source of reassurance" for seniors - that they are not going to be "shocked by a bill" that exceeds what they are committed to.

Eligible seniors can register their interest in the mobile plans with Seniors Go Digital digital ambassadors after they have attended digital literacy programmes and acquired at least one basic digital skill, such as using messaging apps like WhatsApp, or scanning QR codes.

Separately, the four telcos, along with virtual telco Circles.Life, are also launching low-cost mobile plans available to all seniors.

For example, StarHub's four plans include SIM-only plans with 5GB or 30GB of monthly mobile data for $8 or $20, respectively.

The other two plans, which come with a bundled smartphone, are priced at $40 or $60 a month for 15GB or 40GB of mobile data, respectively, over two years. Customers can sign up for these plans now at all StarHub outlets.



Meanwhile, M1 is offering a 25 per cent discount on its regular device and SIM-only plans for seniors, along with three-month complimentary access to streaming services Viu Premium and TVBAnywhere+.

This means, for instance, that its $25 SIM-only plan with 30GB monthly mobile data will cost $18.75 for seniors. The plans will be available for sign-up from July 24.

Singtel said it will launch its plans next month. These will come with data-free messaging on WhatsApp, among other perks.

The telco will also hold Seniors Go Digital workshops at eight outlets across the island every Wednesday to give seniors personalised assistance. These will be held from 9am to 11am, two hours before the outlets open.

The new Mobile Access for Seniors scheme augments broad-ranging outreach efforts under the Singapore Digital Office (SDO) formed last month, including the Seniors Go Digital movement that aims to reach 100,000 seniors by the end of this year.

The SDO will recruit 1,000 digital ambassadors by the end of this month to help seniors as well as stallholders at hawker centres and wet markets to learn how to use digital tools.

Singaporeans: Essential workers deserve higher pay

8 in 10 Singaporeans willing to pay more for essential services but few want to do the jobs themselves: Survey
Survey shows they are ready to pay up to 10% or 20% more if extra money goes to workers
By Janice Tai, Social Affairs Correspondent, The Sunday Times, 14 Jun 2020

Around eight in 10 Singaporeans are willing to pay more for essential services such as cleaning or security if the extra amount goes to the workers themselves.

They would pay up to 10 per cent or 20 per cent more for such services. This could include service and conservancy charges (S&CC) for Housing Board flat dwellers or maintenance fees for private property owners.

S&CC typically range from $20 to $90 a month for Singaporeans, so a 20 per cent hike could work out to as much as $18 more a month.

The findings, from a survey commissioned by The Sunday Times, come as the coronavirus pandemic has turned the spotlight on the important role of essential workers, and the discrepancy between their value to society and what they earn.

The online survey of some 1,000 respondents aged 16 and above was carried out by Milieu Insight, a Singapore-based consumer research firm. It was done from June 5 to 8 with a nationally representative sampling across age, gender and income groups to capture how people's perceptions of essential workers have changed, if at all, against the backdrop of COVID-19, and whether they would be willing to pay these workers more.

The strong support for higher wages is likely to have been influenced by the outbreak, with 73 per cent of respondents saying they "respect essential workers more now" when asked to what extent the pandemic has affected their views.

Asked who they considered to be essential workers, respondents listed doctors, cleaners, garbage collectors, hawkers and deliverymen.

"Unfortunately, in many societies, the more useful the work is, the less they pay you," labour MP Zainal Sapari, assistant secretary-general of the National Trades Union Congress, noted in Parliament earlier this month.

The cleaning workforce is around 62,000-strong and the security workforce, some 48,000. These are some of the lowest paid occupations among a range of essential work.

Moves have been made in recent years to increase salaries for workers in these jobs. Under the Progressive Wage Model (PWM), which mandates a wage floor for workers in some industries, wages increased from last year for security officers and from 2017 for cleaners. The monthly basic wage of a security officer is now $1,250 and that of a general cleaner is at least $1,200.

But basic wages for these essential workers still hover in the bottom fifth percentile based on gross monthly wages of resident workers, said Mr Sapari. For instance, the median monthly basic wage of a general office clerk in 2018 was $2,225.



WHAT COMPANIES SHOULD DO

Respondents were also asked what they think companies and the Government should do to increase the wages of essential workers.

Companies should pay workers according to the number of tasks completed instead of by headcount, said 60 per cent of respondents. The more they complete, the more they can be paid.

This was followed by those who suggested hiring more Singaporeans instead of foreigners (47 per cent), and training workers to do more work within the same period to justify a higher pay (46 per cent). About 5 per cent thought companies need not do anything. Respondents could select multiple options.

CDC Vouchers Scheme: 400,000 lower-income households to each receive $50 worth of vouchers to support local businesses hard hit by COVID-19

$20 million in vouchers to be distributed to 400,000 Singaporean households
Eligible households will receive notification letters in batches between 15 June and end-July 2020
By Goh Yan Han, The Straits Times, 13 Jun 2020

Up to 400,000 lower-income Singaporean households will be able to collect $50 worth of vouchers in the coming months to be spent at local businesses.

The Community Development Council (CDC) Vouchers Scheme was launched yesterday to help Singaporean households with daily expenses while supporting local merchants and hawkers.

The households, identified through various government help schemes, can use the vouchers at participating shops and stalls such as hawker stalls and mom-and-pop shops.

About 2,500 merchants and hawkers have signed up so far.

More are expected to come on board as awareness of the scheme increases and the economy reopens, said Ms Low Yen Ling, chairman of the Mayors' Committee and Mayor of South West District.

She added that the five mayors and grassroots advisers have been working with merchant and hawker associations to recruit heartland businesses virtually during the past two months, after Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat announced a $20 million grant for CDCs to support families and their needs during the first Budget in February.



Eligible households will receive notification letters in batches between June 15 and end-July. They will have to present the letter and one NRIC per household during the voucher collection.

Each letter will state the starting date of voucher collection at designated community centres for each household. The earliest date is June 25, though the vouchers can be collected any time until Dec 1.

This is to ensure safe distancing and to minimise overcrowding at the collection points.

The vouchers, which come in $2 denominations, must be used by Dec 31.

Staff from the various constituency offices or representatives from the associations will visit the merchants weekly to collect the vouchers and reimburse them with cash, said Ms Low.



The scheme was launched yesterday in a closed-door Zoom meeting attended by DPM Heng, the five mayors - Ms Low, Dr Maliki Osman, Dr Teo Ho Pin, Ms Denise Phua and Mr Desmond Choo - and the president of the Federation of Merchants' Associations, Mr Yeo Hiang Meng, who was representing the participating merchants.

Mr Heng, who is also Finance Minister, said that the CDC Vouchers Scheme and other local efforts are part of a larger suite of support measures to help Singaporeans.

"I am confident that with agencies such as the CDCs working closely with the community and helping the vulnerable groups, we can weather this storm together.

"Let us continue to stay resilient and united," said Mr Heng.

Ms Low said the scheme is an example of the five CDCs working together during challenging times to support lower-income families and boost local heartland businesses.

"As our residents patronise their neighbourhood shops and hawkers, we hope it will also build a fresh sense of solidarity and mutual support among Singaporeans," she added.

"We are all in this crisis together, from residents to shopkeepers, from families to businesses, individuals and organisations.

"But by joining hearts and hands, we can gain... fresh confidence to overcome the odds and emerge even stronger."

Why the retirement age is irrelevant for Singapore

To retire or not to retire - employer flexibility is the answer.
By Sumit Agarwal, Published The Straits Times, 18 Apr 2019

I am turning 50 next year. This means I have only 12 more years to work, given that Singapore's minimum retirement age is 62. In my middle age, I start questioning why retirement is even necessary. I love what I do and going to work gives me a greater sense of purpose every day.

While the Tripartite Workgroup on Older Workers is contemplating raising the statutory retirement age, I believe the policy should be scrapped altogether because of Singapore's ageing population.

THE CASE AGAINST A MINIMUM RETIREMENT AGE

There are four main reasons why we should not have a retirement age.

Historically, a retirement age helps an economy manage and align its workforce with population growth. In a country where there are more young people than an elderly population, not having a retirement age means the young working-age population may not be able to get jobs and as a result, unemployment will rise.

Furthermore, higher unemployment can make or break an election and as a result, is a major point of contention in a democracy. Take India, for example, where 30 to 40 per cent of the population is under 25 years of age. There, a statutory retirement age would make sense. Without it, many of these young working-age adults would be unemployed. However, in ageing economies with low population growth such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore, one questions how a retirement age is still relevant since older workers are not a threat to unemployment.

Second, life expectancy today is longer. Traditionally, retirement is viewed as a rite of passage where employees stop working in order to enjoy the fruits of their labour. Back then, life expectancy was shorter. However, today, the average life expectancy is relatively higher due to advancements in technology, healthcare and lifestyle.

In Singapore, for example, the health-adjusted life expectancy is projected to be 76.7 by 2030. As people live longer, their retirement savings in their Central Provident Fund (CPF) need to sustain them until death. Therefore, they need to continue working.

Research also suggests that retirees are more likely to die sooner than expected due to idleness. The research by the National Bureau of Economic Research in the United States found a robust 2 per cent increase in male mortality after the age of 62, which is when Americans can claim their social security payments. The increase in male mortality is related to being retired from the labour force and associated changes in lifestyle.

A MISSED OPPORTUNITY

While Singaporeans can work beyond the retirement age of 62, some employers are using the minimum retirement age as a mechanism to push out older workers. The common perception is that older workers cost more to retain and are less productive. Many employers would rather bring in younger staff who cost less and can be trained. As a result, older workers who do find re-employment are working in sub-optimal jobs.

In the US, where there is no retirement age, the economy has very low unemployment, high wages and high productivity. It is a process of natural selection among older workers, where some choose to continue working, some opt to retire, while others are laid off because they are not as productive.

To avoid a missed opportunity, employers should develop and adopt new strategies on how to use older and more experienced staff to increase productivity, enhance organisational culture and bring additional value to the organisation at the salary paid to them.

In addition, keeping the older and more experienced workers in the workforce would also not jeopardise opportunities for younger workers, given Singapore's low population growth. Eliminating retirement age would also likely result in Singapore importing fewer foreign talent.

Lease Buyback Scheme extended to all HDB flats from 1 January 2019; Government to seek feedback on new housing policy VERS

Govt looking into letting buyers use more of CPF for older, shorter-lease flats
By Rachel Au-Yong, Housing Correspondent, The Straits Times, 21 Aug 2018

Elderly owners in all Housing Board flats - even those in five-room flats or executive maisonettes - can soon sell a part of their lease to the Government and use that income to fund their retirement years.

The Government is also looking to update rules so that people can dip more freely into their Central Provident Fund (CPF) savings when they purchase older flats.

National Development Minister Lawrence Wong announced these moves in a blog post yesterday, a day after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong outlined the Ministry of National Development's (MND) plans to systematically upgrade older HDB flats. Residents in selected precincts may even get to vote on whether to take up the Government's offer to buy back their flats.

"These are long-term plans which will be implemented over several decades," noted Mr Wong. "Meanwhile, MND will be making several shorter-term moves to help seniors unlock the value of their HDB flats for retirement."

Previously, the Lease Buyback Scheme was restricted to four-room or smaller flats. But Mr Wong said that there are seniors who prefer to age in place. "This (move) will enable many more Singaporeans to benefit from the scheme," he said.

Currently, to qualify for the scheme, home owners must be at least 65 years old and have at least 20 years of lease to sell to HDB, among other eligibility conditions.

The current take-up rate is relatively low, with about 2,500 families benefiting as of Nov 30 last year, since the scheme was implemented in 2009. The average proceeds they received are about $146,000.



Mr Steven Choo, chairman of real estate advisory firm VestAsia Group, said the change is likely to make the scheme more attractive: "If you have a 30-year lease on a five-room flat, it can be quite a tidy sum. If you crave security, this is a good option."

But National University of Singapore real estate professor Sing Tien Foo does not expect the take-up rate to increase by much. "Those who own a bigger flat technically should have higher incomes and may not need to monetise as much as those from lower-income families. The number of people who will sell the remainder of their leases should be quite manageable - too many, and that would strain the HDB's budget."

Mr Wong's ministry is also looking into how to let buyers of shorter-lease flats use more of their CPF monies for their purchase, without compromising on their retirement savings. Improving the liquidity of the resale market for older flats, he added, would facilitate an elderly resident's move to a smaller unit.

Currently, CPF can be used for the purchase of older HDB flats, but is subject to certain restrictions which kick in when the remaining lease is less than 60 years. For example, a home owner can use his CPF money if his age plus the number of years left on the remaining lease of the property is at least 80 years, but that too is subject to certain restrictions.

No CPF money can be used if the remaining lease is less than 30 years.

"These rules are meant to ensure that buyers purchase a home for life, without compromising their retirement savings," he said. But he added that there is "scope to provide more flexibility for buyers of shorter-lease flats while safeguarding their retirement adequacy".

Mr Wong said the moves - the result of many months of intensive study - are "meant to prepare for the future responsibly".

Why Singapore needs to build big: National Development Minister Lawrence Wong

Bold moves in infrastructure: Thinking big pays off for Singapore planners
Some ideas end up being shelved, but it is part of the challenge in the planning of infrastructure, as Insight finds out
By Ng Jun Sen, Political Correspondent, The Sunday Times, 4 Feb 2018

Whatever happened to Singapore's Long Island Project?

A natural reaction to that would be, "What Long Island Project?"

Over time, it has become largely forgotten. But decades ago, urban planners envisioned building an island using reclaimed land off East Coast Park for recreation and with beautiful waterfront housing.

But this plan - known as the Long Island Project - has since been put aside as there was little demand for it, reveals the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) chief planner, Ms Hwang Yu-Ning, in an interview with Insight.

"People love East Coast Park, so do we really want to commit to the plan if we don't need it? Some of these options can be safeguarded for future use," she says.

"If we need to dust off these plans later on, we would have already studied the idea."

The decision underscores the changing and complex nature of infrastructure planning.

It is hard to say when is the right time to build ahead of demand, says Ms Hwang. There is a risk that the demand for a project may never come, if plans proceed too quickly.

Even so, Singapore has bet big in the past - and seen those bold gambles pay off in a big way.

National Development Minister Lawrence Wong, in his interview with Insight, cites several examples - moving the airport from Paya Lebar to Changi, which made Singapore an aviation centre; building the region's first container port; and converting Jurong from swampland to an industrial estate.



Infrastructure has always been a key part of Singapore's economic strategy, says Mr Wong, who is also Second Minister for Finance.

"We are building for practical needs, to enhance our hub status to attract more investments and create more jobs for Singaporeans."

He stresses the importance of being prepared to think big and make decisive moves, instead of just incremental changes.

This is because Singapore has to navigate an uncertain global environment and the threat of other countries bypassing the Republic as a regional hub, Mr Wong says.

For instance, other countries are building new ports, and new shipping routes are being created.

To future-proof Singapore against intensifying competition, the Government is - once more - betting big by embarking on billion-dollar projects such as the upcoming High-Speed Rail between Jurong and Kuala Lumpur, the mega port in Tuas and a fifth airport terminal in Changi.

These "big-ticket items" are a key reason why government spending on infrastructure is slated to rise in the coming years.

On these mega projects, Mr Wong says: "It's about giving us the best possible chance of attracting investments, remaining a competitive, attractive regional centre, and giving Singapore the best chance of success in an uncertain world."

Reframing the debate on ageing and immigration

Research shows immigration boosts growth
By Vikram Khanna, Associate Editor, The Straits Times, 31 Jan 2018

Earlier this month, Monetary Authority of Singapore managing director Ravi Menon made an insightful presentation on the links between three critical issues facing Singapore: ageing, immigration and productivity.

Speaking at the Institute of Policy Studies' Singapore Perspectives conference, he noted that Singapore's working age population - residents aged 15-64 - will start to decline from 2020. Since economic growth is the sum of the growth of the labour force and productivity, if Singapore freezes immigration and is not able to increase fertility beyond the replacement rate, productivity will be the only source of growth.

So if productivity grows at 1.5 per cent - the average of the last seven years -the economy will also grow at 1.5 per cent. That would be a problem; it would seriously limit increases in wages and improvements in living standards.

If we don't want immigration, we can, in theory, mitigate the problem by raising the total fertility rate and the labour force participation rate - the percentage of workers in the workforce.

But even if we succeed in raising the fertility rate from the current level of 1.2 (children per woman, on average) to the replacement rate of 2.1 over the next 15 years - a challenging target - it won't have much of an impact on the growth of the workforce or gross domestic product (GDP) until 2040 because, as Mr Menon noted, "it will take time for the extra babies born in the next 15 years to start entering the labour force".



The key to raising the labour force participation rate is to encourage more women to work. World Bank data shows that while Singapore's overall labour force participation rate, at 68 per cent, is higher than the average for high-income countries (60 per cent), there is a 17 percentage point gap between the participation rates of men (77 per cent) and women (60 per cent). In most other high-income countries, the gap ranges from 9 to 12 percentage points. If Singapore can narrow the gap to 11 percentage points by 2035, it will help, but not by much. The labour force would expand by only 2 per cent by 2035.

Given these constraints to expanding our workforce, Mr Menon pointed out that Singapore must "allow a certain rate of net immigration". It must also be flexible in its immigration policies, responding to economic cycles, changing circumstances and opportunities.

He concluded that Singapore needs to reframe the question on foreign workers. "It is not about how many foreign workers industry wants or society can afford to have," he said, "but what number and kind of foreign workers we need to maximise the job and wage opportunities for Singaporeans. Foreign workers must be a complement to the local workforce."

Many of the issues raised by Mr Menon are worth exploring further. Here are some interesting findings from economic research.

Institute of Policy Studies Singapore Perspectives 2018 conference

Heng Swee Keat: More can be done to meet needs of older Singaporeans
Younger leaders looking at issue; minister hints at Budget measures to support seniors
By Yasmine Yahya, Senior Political Correspondent, The Straits Times, 23 Jan 2018

A group of younger leaders have banded together to mull over what Singapore "needs to do differently in the coming years" as its population ages, underscoring how the issue has become one of the most urgent challenges for the Government.

Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat yesterday also hinted that measures to better support seniors will be a focus at the upcoming Budget on Feb 19, saying: "Please be patient, wait for the Budget, and we will talk about this."

At the Singapore Perspectives conference organised by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), Mr Heng said a group of leaders including Health Minister Gan Kim Yong, Minister for Culture, Community and Youth Grace Fu, Minister for Social and Family Development Desmond Lee and Speaker Tan Chuan-Jin are pondering the challenges the aged in Singapore face.

They "are very concerned and are working together on this", he added. It is not starting from scratch, he said, noting that the Government had established, in 2007, a Ministerial Committee on Ageing, which is now chaired by Mr Gan.

Mr Heng did not give further details of the group.

Older Singaporeans, he noted, face a slew of diverse worries.



Based on feedback garnered by pioneer generation ambassadors, the senior citizens are concerned about matters from healthcare needs to loneliness to finance - all currently addressed by different agencies and ministries. "What it shows very clearly is there is a gap at the front line, in terms of how well we are delivering that service to the seniors who need it," said Mr Heng.

And so, going forward, "we will have to think about looking at the issues in a more cross-disciplinary way, across agencies and ministries", he added, saying the Government has to find ways for them to work better together. "Practically every ministry will have to deal with this demographic transition."

Singapore today has around 500,000 people aged 65 and above. This is expected to almost double to around 900,000 by 2030.

At the conference, which was focused on ageing, Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean, who oversees the National Population and Talent Division, said more can be done to support seniors, such as redesigning jobs to help them continue to work and helping them to take part in the gig economy.

One concern about Singapore's ageing population is the toll it could take on the economy. An IPS study said it will cause a drag of 1.5 percentage points on per capita gross domestic product growth annually until 2060, assuming zero immigration and a stagnant fertility rate.

Monetary Authority of Singapore managing director Ravi Menon yesterday said that the economy can remain dynamic - provided that certain steps are taken.

For instance, he noted, Singapore's childcare workers earn just 38 per cent of the national median wage. Those in Australia pull in earnings at 91 per cent of the national median. This shows the scope that Singapore has to "professionalise" such rank-and-file jobs, which would help the economy remain competitive as the workforce ages.

The Republic should also be increasingly concerned about the skills of the foreign workers that it takes in, rather than just the numbers, he added.

"In fact, more skilled foreign workers will mean that we will need less of them," said Mr Menon, adding that as Singapore pursues innovation, it will need to attract highly skilled intellectual capital that it may not already have.

Govt spending on healthcare expected to rise sharply; Singapore faces demographic time bomb in 2018

Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat says it will go up by at least $3 billion by 2020 because of ageing population, tech advances
By Salma Khalik, Senior Health Correspondent, The Straits Times, 7 Dec 2017

Singapore may have to foot a bigger health bill to care for its ageing population.

Government expenditure on healthcare is expected to "rise quite sharply" in the next three to five years, Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat said yesterday.

He expects it to go up by at least $3 billion by 2020 from the current levels.

To put that in perspective, the total budget for the Ministry of Health (MOH) in 2010 was $4 billion. In this year's Budget, Mr Heng allocated it $10 billion.

A jump of another $3 billion by 2020 would mean that in 10 years, the health budget will climb to more than three times its 2010 level.

After a tour of Changi General Hospital (CGH) and St Andrew's Community Hospital (SACH) yesterday, Mr Heng said: "As medical technology improves, as our population ages, the demands will grow, and the need to provide for that will also grow." He predicted an annual MOH budget of "at least" $13 billion from 2020.



Professor Euston Quah, head of economics at Nanyang Technological University, said rising healthcare costs will mean higher taxes.

He said: "It is one major reason since, increasingly, healthcare is subsidised for greater number of eligible people.

"Income tax and corporate taxes, which are direct taxes, are low in Singapore relative to other countries, but indirect taxes (GST and other non-earnings-based taxes) make up for it."

In his Budget speech in February, Mr Heng had said that part of a bigger healthcare bill will be covered by new taxes or the Government raising present taxes.

Dr Chia Shi-Lu, head of the Government Parliamentary Committee for Health, said: "Spending on healthcare will comprise an increasing proportion of net government expenditure over the next decade.

"When taxes do increase, it is good to know that a significant proportion of our tax dollars is going towards healthcare, which is a public good and necessity."

Mr Heng said the $3 billion increase is "just an initial estimate", and will depend on "how well we are able to manage in the next few years".