Are opinion polls a good way to decide a nation's priorities for governance? Not when public policy has so many shades of grey
By Raymond Lim, Published The Straits Times, 30 Oct 2012
By Raymond Lim, Published The Straits Times, 30 Oct 2012
THE launch of the Singapore Conversation has seen many sessions to discuss what sort of Singapore citizens hope to see in the future.
In a recent session, participants were particularly excited by Yahoo! Singapore's online poll on what are the 10 most pressing concerns for Singaporeans. A total of 21,470 people cast their votes, with the cost of housing voted the No. 1 concern.
Many said this was a good way to feel the pulse of the people. And knowing the popular will, they said, is important as it helps the government set its policy agenda - more resources to housing (28 per cent) and less to public transport, since the public transport crunch received only 3 per cent of votes, coming in at No. 10.
But is this really a good way to govern? Even if we assume the polls or surveys are properly conducted - with proper sampling methods and so on - is governing by opinion polls and laws by referendums the way to go? One participant said it will mean greater democracy in Singapore. Will it?
California in the United States uses referendums and citizens' initiatives to decide on policy issues. The result has been to make the state well-nigh ungovernable as the government is tied up with a mishmash of popular demands, often contradictory and short-term focused.
For example, "Yes, to more public services" but "No, to more taxes to fund them". The problem is amplified on policy issues, where there is short-term pain but long-term benefits. This is not surprising as those who are adversely affected have every reason to campaign against it while the silent majority, well, stay silent.
And since most people are concerned with the present, the here and now, present pain will usually dominate future benefits when they cast their votes.
Ironically, introducing opinion polls to decide on policy issues does not necessarily mean giving more power to the people or greater democracy in practice.