Research shows immigration boosts growth
By Vikram Khanna, Associate Editor, The Straits Times, 31 Jan 2018
Earlier this month, Monetary Authority of Singapore managing director Ravi Menon made an insightful presentation on the links between three critical issues facing Singapore: ageing, immigration and productivity.
Speaking at the Institute of Policy Studies' Singapore Perspectives conference, he noted that Singapore's working age population - residents aged 15-64 - will start to decline from 2020. Since economic growth is the sum of the growth of the labour force and productivity, if Singapore freezes immigration and is not able to increase fertility beyond the replacement rate, productivity will be the only source of growth.
So if productivity grows at 1.5 per cent - the average of the last seven years -the economy will also grow at 1.5 per cent. That would be a problem; it would seriously limit increases in wages and improvements in living standards.
If we don't want immigration, we can, in theory, mitigate the problem by raising the total fertility rate and the labour force participation rate - the percentage of workers in the workforce.
But even if we succeed in raising the fertility rate from the current level of 1.2 (children per woman, on average) to the replacement rate of 2.1 over the next 15 years - a challenging target - it won't have much of an impact on the growth of the workforce or gross domestic product (GDP) until 2040 because, as Mr Menon noted, "it will take time for the extra babies born in the next 15 years to start entering the labour force".
The key to raising the labour force participation rate is to encourage more women to work. World Bank data shows that while Singapore's overall labour force participation rate, at 68 per cent, is higher than the average for high-income countries (60 per cent), there is a 17 percentage point gap between the participation rates of men (77 per cent) and women (60 per cent). In most other high-income countries, the gap ranges from 9 to 12 percentage points. If Singapore can narrow the gap to 11 percentage points by 2035, it will help, but not by much. The labour force would expand by only 2 per cent by 2035.
Given these constraints to expanding our workforce, Mr Menon pointed out that Singapore must "allow a certain rate of net immigration". It must also be flexible in its immigration policies, responding to economic cycles, changing circumstances and opportunities.
He concluded that Singapore needs to reframe the question on foreign workers. "It is not about how many foreign workers industry wants or society can afford to have," he said, "but what number and kind of foreign workers we need to maximise the job and wage opportunities for Singaporeans. Foreign workers must be a complement to the local workforce."
Many of the issues raised by Mr Menon are worth exploring further. Here are some interesting findings from economic research.
By Vikram Khanna, Associate Editor, The Straits Times, 31 Jan 2018
Earlier this month, Monetary Authority of Singapore managing director Ravi Menon made an insightful presentation on the links between three critical issues facing Singapore: ageing, immigration and productivity.
Speaking at the Institute of Policy Studies' Singapore Perspectives conference, he noted that Singapore's working age population - residents aged 15-64 - will start to decline from 2020. Since economic growth is the sum of the growth of the labour force and productivity, if Singapore freezes immigration and is not able to increase fertility beyond the replacement rate, productivity will be the only source of growth.
So if productivity grows at 1.5 per cent - the average of the last seven years -the economy will also grow at 1.5 per cent. That would be a problem; it would seriously limit increases in wages and improvements in living standards.
If we don't want immigration, we can, in theory, mitigate the problem by raising the total fertility rate and the labour force participation rate - the percentage of workers in the workforce.
But even if we succeed in raising the fertility rate from the current level of 1.2 (children per woman, on average) to the replacement rate of 2.1 over the next 15 years - a challenging target - it won't have much of an impact on the growth of the workforce or gross domestic product (GDP) until 2040 because, as Mr Menon noted, "it will take time for the extra babies born in the next 15 years to start entering the labour force".
The key to raising the labour force participation rate is to encourage more women to work. World Bank data shows that while Singapore's overall labour force participation rate, at 68 per cent, is higher than the average for high-income countries (60 per cent), there is a 17 percentage point gap between the participation rates of men (77 per cent) and women (60 per cent). In most other high-income countries, the gap ranges from 9 to 12 percentage points. If Singapore can narrow the gap to 11 percentage points by 2035, it will help, but not by much. The labour force would expand by only 2 per cent by 2035.
Given these constraints to expanding our workforce, Mr Menon pointed out that Singapore must "allow a certain rate of net immigration". It must also be flexible in its immigration policies, responding to economic cycles, changing circumstances and opportunities.
He concluded that Singapore needs to reframe the question on foreign workers. "It is not about how many foreign workers industry wants or society can afford to have," he said, "but what number and kind of foreign workers we need to maximise the job and wage opportunities for Singaporeans. Foreign workers must be a complement to the local workforce."
Many of the issues raised by Mr Menon are worth exploring further. Here are some interesting findings from economic research.









