Monday 30 March 2020

Coronavirus: Workplace distancing more effective than school closures, says study

Sick adults more likely to go to work than kids are to go to school, spreading virus, it finds
By Salma Khalik, Senior Health Correspondent, The Sunday Times, 29 Mar 2020

Workplace distancing is far more effective in reducing the spread of COVID-19 than school closures, said a team of experts.

They noted in a study that sick adults are more likely to go to work than sick children are to go to school. The adults would spread the virus to co-workers, who would bring it back to their own homes.

The team - mostly from the National University of Singapore Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health - said workplace distancing, quarantine and school closures combined give the best outcome, an approach that should be immediately deployed "if local secondary transmission is confirmed within Singapore. However, quarantine and workplace distancing should be prioritised over school closure".

Singapore is not at the stage where all these measures need to be in place yet, said Associate Professor Alex Cook, one of the authors of the study, which was funded by the Ministry of Health and the Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre.

The team assessed various scenarios and the effectiveness of different strategies to keep patient numbers within manageable proportions - flattening the infection curve, as it is called. Their calculations start from the moment 100 unidentified patients in Singapore may be spreading the disease in the community.

The study uses the median from 1,000 simulations carried out for each of five scenarios: doing nothing; quarantine; workplace distancing; school closures; and a combination of the last three.

If all three measures are in place, infection numbers would range from 1,800 to more than 250,000 by day 80, depending on the rate of transmission.

The lower number is based on a rate of one person infecting 1.5 others; the upper figure is from one person infecting 2.5 others. These are the ranges experts have given for the transmissibility of the virus.

At the lower rate, workplace distancing would reduce the number of people infected by day 80 to 4,000. There would be 10,000 infected people if only schools were closed.

Health Minister Gan Kim Yong told Parliament last Wednesday: "If we do nothing, the number of cases will shoot up, like what happened in several cities and countries recently."

The study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal last Monday, noted that if no measures had been taken, the number of infections here would have been between 279,000 and 1.2 million by day 80.

If Singapore had not started contact tracing and quarantining close contacts, there would have been 100 unidentified people with COVID-19 by early last month, with day 80 falling in mid-April.



Prof Cook said the scenarios apply when contact tracing is no longer possible because of the volume of cases, which is not the situation yet.

"At present, transmission is still being contained here: The large increase in cases has been driven by citizens and residents returning from outbreak areas. But there's no evidence that contact tracing is 'breaking down' because of this.

"At least for now, there would be little benefit to closing schools. I'm sure that this option will be considered if children start to play a more important role in the outbreak."

But he said people who can work from home should do so. "Older people, including working-age adults, are at greater risk of complications, which is why work distancing is being promoted."

The study said: "The continually high percentage contribution of work-related infections, despite work distancing being effective, suggests that the workplace is a key infection site in Singapore."

This was supported by Mr Gan: "In Singapore, we saw a few local clusters emerge where individuals who were feeling unwell or had medical certificates... did not minimise social contact, and continued to attend work or social activities."

Singapore invoked the Infectious Diseases Act last Wednesday, giving the Government the power to punish those who flout COVID-19-related medical leave.

The study added that another area of concern is the Singaporean habit of eating out.

About 75 per cent of people go to a hawker centre at least once a week, according to the Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources. If possible, people should be incentivised to stay at home and practise workplace distancing, the study noted.

Singapore has closed all pubs, discos and other leisure locations where crowds gather. Eating joints have been told to keep groups of patrons separated by 1 metre.

The study indicated that most infections, whether interventions are in place or not, would be in the east and north-east of the country. Most of the spread would occur in homes or the community.

The study acknowledged that interventions needed to prevent community transmission might not be widely supported by the population.

But it added: "Current government-led outbreak control measures will only be successful with public cooperation through exercising good hygiene, infection prevention in shared spaces, and adequate education to understand when symptoms might be indicative of a potential SARS-CoV-2 infection."




















Stay home if you are even a little bit unwell, say experts
Advice follows news that some of the staff at PCF coronavirus cluster were at work while sick
By Timothy Goh, The Straits Times, 28 Mar 2020

Infectious diseases experts here are urging people to stay home unless they are "100 per cent" well, following news that some of the staff in the coronavirus cluster at PCF Sparkletots in Fengshan were at work while sick.

Dr Leong Hoe Nam, who practises at Mount Elizabeth Novena Hospital, told The Straits Times: "If you look at the numbers, we're hitting around 70 cases a day. If we do this consecutively for five days, we'd need a new National Centre for Infectious Diseases to hold the patients.

"If this goes on, our whole healthcare system will be overloaded.

"So everyone must play their part, no ifs or buts. If you're even a little bit unwell, please don't go out, stay at home. It's high stakes now."

Professor Paul Tambyah, from the National University of Singapore's Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, agreed.

"Right now when there is a worldwide coronavirus pandemic, it is best to stay home if one does not feel 100 per cent well," he said.

As of yesterday, there were 25 cases of infection in the PCF Fengshan cluster.



The pre-school principal was well when she went to work on March 17 but developed symptoms that afternoon. On that day, she had a meeting with her staff, and attended a course with other pre-school staff in the evening.

Most of the staff from the centre who tested positive for the virus began developing symptoms from March 20.

Nine family members of the principal also tested positive.

Dr Leong said that on average, an individual spreads the virus to only two to three people.

Some, however, will pass the infection to at least five to 10 others.

Citing a recent study on the spread of the coronavirus in Singapore, Prof Tambyah highlighted that 88 per cent of individuals did not transmit the infection to anyone, even when they were not in quarantine.

However, three or four patients would later become the source for some major clusters.

He said: "The vast majority of people do not spread (the virus responsible for COVID-19) to anyone.

"On the other hand, a few individuals become the index patients for large numbers of secondary and tertiary cases."



Both Prof Tambyah and Dr Leong emphasised that it is better to refer to a "super-spreading event", rather than a "super spreader".

The term "super spreader" pins a lot of responsibility and blame on a single individual, while in reality there may be other factors at play.

Dr Leong added: "We shouldn't pin and judge people with retrospective vision. If anyone knew what would happen after a particular action was taken, if they knew it would lead to a spread, they wouldn't have taken it."

There are several lessons to be learnt from the PCF cluster. Noting that the principal developed symptoms only in the afternoon, Dr Leong said workplaces should take temperatures thrice a day.

On the meeting that the principal attended, he added: "It's a good reminder that we ought not to meet if possible. If you have to meet, an open-air environment is preferred to an air-conditioned one."

Those in a meeting room should maintain a 1m to 2m distance from one another, and should declare if they are feeling unwell before joining the meeting. They should also not share food or drinks.















Avoid contact with elderly in family if on sick leave: NCID head
By Timothy Goh, The Straits Times, 28 Mar 2020

Those who are on five days' medical leave should avoid contact with their elderly family members "at all costs", warned the National Centre for Infectious Diseases' (NCID) executive director Leo Yee Sin yesterday.

This is because the elderly are vulnerable to virus infections, including COVID-19, she said.

Those with symptoms of acute respiratory illness who are prescribed five days' medical leave at home should also try to avoid contact with all family members of any age, even at mealtimes, said Professor Leo.

She added that if it is absolutely necessary to interact with others at home, those on medical leave should put on a surgical mask.

Separately, they should also take care of their personal hygiene, washing their hands frequently with water and soap or using hand sanitiser.

They should keep their surroundings clean, and preferably use a dedicated toilet which others in the house do not use.

If this is not possible, the toilet they use must be kept clean.



Prof Leo said: "This is necessary as we learn more about SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19."

The virus can be spread through both direct and indirect droplet transmission, she added.

This could take place through close face-to-face contact within 1m to 2m of an infected person, or through interaction with a contaminated environment or contaminated objects.

Prof Leo said: "NCID would like to stress that anyone who has acute respiratory illness, regardless of severity, should put on a surgical mask and seek early medical consultation."

The common symptoms of acute respiratory illness include fever, cough, sore throat and a runny nose.

"If the doctor provides five days' rest at home, please adhere closely to that - rest at home and do not leave the house," added Prof Leo.

Her comments came a day after the Ministry of Health updated the Infectious Diseases Act, stating that those with acute respiratory symptoms who are given a five-day medical certificate by a doctor must not leave home from the day the MC is given, except to seek medical attention. Those who fail to comply can be fined up to $10,000, jailed for up to six months, or both.



Similar penalties apply to those who intentionally sit less than 1m away from another person in a public place, on a fixed seat marked not to be occupied, or stand in a queue less than 1m away from another person.















Being quarantined taught me not to be complacent
By Yuen Sin, The Sunday Times, 29 Mar 2020

At the beginning of the month, the coronavirus situation in Singapore had appeared to be improving.

The number of cases reported daily was tapering off, with just a few new ones every day.

While there were reports of the outbreak escalating in countries such as South Korea and Italy, things in Singapore were generally calm, though additional measures such as temperature screening had to be observed.

Events and meetings carried on, and people continued going to shops and restaurants, though some were emptier than usual.

Even Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was encouraging Singaporeans to give the tourism sector a much-needed boost by visiting local attractions or booking staycations.

As long as we took precautions such as washing our hands frequently, life could go on as normal, I thought - until I was issued with a home quarantine order on March 11.

Here's what happened: I had visited a climbing gym a few days before, and I happened to be there at the same time as someone who was later diagnosed with COVID-19.

The contact tracer from the Ministry of Health (MOH) who had called me could not tell me if I had been in close proximity with the patient during the few hours that I had spent there, but it appeared that everyone who had been at the gym that day at the same time as the case had to be quarantined.

It was likely that MOH was being more careful, as the contact tracer told me that many could have touched the same surfaces on the climbing walls even if they were not in close contact with the confirmed case.

In the absence of more information that could help me determine whether I was really at risk of being infected - how close was I to the case; were we at the same areas in the gym; and did we touch the same surfaces? - fear and worry began to set in.

Most of all, I felt guilty towards the people I had been in contact with, though they assured me that I was not to blame. Before I found out about the quarantine order, I had met a group of friends, had meetings with two work contacts and also covered a business forum for work. I had not felt ill at all.

Though there was no official obligation to do so, I informed these contacts about my quarantine order, and told them to monitor their health closely over the next two weeks. I was also worried about my parents, who are in their 60s, and began isolating myself even before the quarantine papers were issued to me.

We often go about our daily lives without paying much attention to little habits that we have, such as touching our faces. But in those moments of receiving the news about being potentially at risk, I started to play back my interactions with others like a movie in my head, alternately reacting with relief and regret at my actions.

Strike one - my friends and I had ordered food in for dinner when we met at a friend's house, and decided that we could go without serving spoons for dessert because it was troublesome to do so.

Strike two - while meeting someone for a contact lunch, we had also shaken hands despite general advisories cautioning against this.

On the plus side, I had remembered to wash my hands thoroughly after leaving the climbing gym, and had not touched my face at all while I was inside. While covering a business forum the next day, I had also kept far away from the VIPs, which meant they were not at risk at all.

Because I was working from home, I had not come into contact with most of my colleagues, which spared them potential inconvenience if the worst-case scenario of me coming down with COVID-19 happened.

As the days of my quarantine passed, things began to look up. My temperature readings, which had to be taken thrice a day and reported to an MOH officer via video call, were normal.

I did not experience any symptoms, and I also found out from a circular that the patient who had been at the gym had been in a different area from me, which meant that I was probably at low risk.

Still, I took extra precautions, and avoided meeting people on March 22 after my quarantine order lifted at noon.

My experience also gave me an appreciation of the intense work that goes on behind the scenes in Singapore's efforts to contain the coronavirus. The MOH contact-tracing team had called me promptly, despite the fact that more than 100 people also had to be quarantined on the same day that I received notice.

The Certis officers also had to work late into the night to deliver the quarantine papers and call people to inform them of what they had to do, on top of manning a 24-hour hotline that quarantined people can call if they have any queries or face any issues.

With more than 38,000 people now serving out stay-home notices, the workload of those in charge of enforcing such notices has also probably increased exponentially. It is not easy work.

The coronavirus situation has escalated over the past few weeks, with the World Health Organisation labelling it a pandemic and numerous countries going into lockdowns.

Life in Singapore cannot go back to normal, at least for the next few weeks - all workers are now being urged to telecommute if possible, and you risk jail or a fine if you venture out of your house on a five-day MC, or if you intentionally fail to observe safe-distancing guidelines.



After my quarantine scare, my family also started using serving spoons during meals and separate toilets as a precautionary measure.

I'm minimising activities that will put me in close contact with strangers, such as going to yoga studios or gym classes.

Some may think the measures are too stringent and question their necessity. Others may cite instances where it may not yet be practical or feasible to carry out such measures - such as on public transport during peak hour - and conclude that there is no point in rolling out safe distancing if it cannot be observed across the board.

In our daily lives, it is also not so easy to shift norms or behaviour.

Shaking hands feels like the intuitive, polite thing to do. It feels awkward to insist on keeping your colleagues at arm's length if you see them in the office. Telecommuting for work is troublesome, and it feels depressing to have to cut down all physical social interactions to a minimum.

But every little step counts.

Whether or not you observe these steps could have a direct impact on whether you may be classified as a close contact, or on the likelihood of you developing symptoms should someone in your midst come down with COVID-19.

And with the number of cases now spiking in Singapore, owing to a rise in imported cases, the chances of one coming into contact with someone infected are much higher.

Completing my quarantine does not grant me any immunity to COVID-19, and though nobody is to blame if they come down with the disease, we can all play a part in containing this situation so that one day, we can finally start having gatherings, events and overseas holidays to look forward to.


































Coronavirus: Isolation in the comfort of a hotel
Staff at designated hotels try their best to help guests back from UK, US and serving the 14-day stay-home notices (SHN)
By Melissa Heng, The Sunday Times, 29 Mar 2020

Life in isolation is not all bad for those returning from overseas who have to remain in designated hotel rooms while serving their 14-day stay-home notices (SHN).

Hotels deliver three meals a day to the guests, with some providing local favourites like laksa and char kway teow. Certain hotels also offer laundry services and personal shopping services to help guests get their hands on daily essentials.

Some resorts are also coming up with ingenious ways to keep cabin fever away. For example, at Shangri-La's Rasa Sentosa Resort & Spa, staff could soon be conducting regular exercise sessions on the hotel's garden lawn. Guests will be able to join in and stretch their legs from the safety of their balconies. The hotel is also looking into providing colourful art and craft materials for younger guests.

The Ministry of Health (MOH) announced on Tuesday that all those returning from the UK and the US from 11.59pm on 25 March 2020 will serve their SHN in dedicated facilities instead of in their own homes.

Singaporeans returning from the two countries account for a large share of imported cases so far. About 1,200 people a day have been returning from both countries.



Shangri-La's Rasa Sentosa Resort & Spa is one of many hotels here that have been designated as a dedicated facility. Some of the other hotels include Grand Park Orchard, and three hotels under Far East Hospitality: the Village Hotel Albert Court, Village Hotel Sentosa, and The Elizabeth Hotel.

Asked why the hotels decided to take in SHN guests, chief executive officer of Far East Hospitality Arthur Kiong said: "As a home-grown company, we feel it is our national duty to support government initiatives, and to help our fellow Singaporeans and residents navigate these waters. It is during times like these that courage, generosity and resilience make a difference."

The Government has arranged for returnees to be transported directly from the airport to their designated hotels. Guests are pre-checked in before arriving at the hotel so all they need to do is pick up their room keys from designated locations. Since it is mandatory for them to serve out their SHN in the hotels, the cost of their stay will be paid by the Government.

In a joint statement, Singapore Tourism Board (STB) and Singapore Land Authority (SLA) expressed gratitude to participating hotels for helping to combat the spread of COVID-19.

The statement said: "Through a multi-agency effort involving STB, SLA and other public service organisations, the Government was able to procure SHN facilities in a matter of days, to quickly ramp up the supply of rooms to house many of the returnees to Singapore.

"The public can be assured that proper measures will be put in place to ensure that all participating hotels abide by proper protocols for cleanliness and safety during the 14-day SHN period for occupants."

During this period, designated hotels are accepting only SHN guests, with some hotels even completely closing off access to members of the public.

Hotels that were previously accommodating regular guests made arrangements for those people to move to sister hotels. For example, prior to taking in the SHN guests, Grand Park Orchard relocated existing guests to Grand Park City Hall.

Precautions are taken to ensure the health of the SHN guests and staff, and that there is minimal interaction between both parties.

Some precautions include temperature screening for guests upon arrival, regular temperature screening twice a day for staff, designated lifts for guests, and meals delivered in disposable containers which are left at the room door for guests to collect. Guests are also required to stay in their rooms at all times.

A spokesman for Shangri-La's Rasa Sentosa Resort & Spa said: "The hotel has stepped up precautionary measures since January, which include increased frequency for cleaning and sanitising of hotel facilities and all public areas, and masks and sanitiser are placed around the hotel readily available for usage."

The resort is also equipped with closed-circuit camera monitoring and a 24-hour, on-site emergency response team.



Hotels are also helping to allay the feelings of solitude of guests. Staff check in daily via telephone or write handwritten notes of encouragement to provide some human connection.

Executive housekeeper at Grand Park Orchard Josie Lam, one of those attending to SHN guests, said: "Honestly, a lot of fear is due to a lack of understanding. These guests are all healthy people that do not display any symptoms.

"The 14-day isolation is a precautionary measure."

She added that she felt safe even though there were some cases of those on SHN testing positive for the coronavirus.

She said: "If you think about it, in a controlled environment such as the hotel, the chances of getting the virus is less than, say, going to a crowded club. As a Singaporean, I feel proud to be able to contribute and support my country in the fight against the spread of COVID-19."



































Enterprise Singapore refutes online rumour of safe-distancing ambassador issuing fines
By Malavika Menon, The Sunday Times, 29 Mar 2020

Enterprise Singapore has denied claims circulating on social media and text-messaging apps that one of its safe distancing ambassadors had fined a member of the public. It addressed the claims in a Facebook post on Friday.

One of the claims on social media was put up by a user who said she witnessed a customer at Ya Kun Kaya Toast in Compass One being fined $300 by a safe distancing ambassador for sitting on a seat that was marked with an "X" to maintain distance between patrons.

"Safe distancing ambassadors are deployed by various government agencies to guide and ensure that businesses implement and comply with the safe distancing measures. They do not impose fines," Enterprise Singapore said.



Crowd-control measures have come into full force as the Government on Thursday announced new measures to limit crowds and minimise close contact in public spaces, with safe distancing ambassadors on hand to advise patrons and establishments.

In its post on Facebook, Enterprise Singapore also said that businesses found to have violated the Infectious Diseases Act and the regulations under the Act may be liable to be charged.


The statutory board advised the public to avoid spreading unverified information.




































Courage Fund raises over $5.9 million to support those affected by virus
By Olivia Ho, Arts Correspondent, , The Straits Times, 30 Mar 2020

Community efforts to support those affected by the coronavirus continue to pour in, with The Courage Fund receiving more than $5.9 million in donations.

Social and Family Development Minister Desmond Lee, who announced the amount in a Facebook post yesterday, said the money will be used to support patients, healthcare and front-line workers, vulnerable Singaporeans and the families of COVID-19 victims.

"The Certis officer who contracted COVID-19 while carrying out his duties as an auxiliary police officer has received support from The Courage Fund," added Mr Lee.

He noted that the fund, which was set up in 2003 during the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak and is administered by the Community Chest, has reached out to the family of the disease's first Singaporean fatality here, a 75-year-old woman who died on March 21. "While this will in no way ease the family's grief, we hope it can provide some financial support during this difficult period," he said.



Meanwhile, a Facebook call to applaud those on the front line is gaining traction online.

Clap For #SGUnited asks the public to clap loudly at 8pm tonight, whether at their windows, doors or balconies, to show their appreciation for these workers. So far, 680 Facebook users have indicated they will join the event.

The call was started by British expatriate Martin Verga, 30, who works in finance. He was inspired by #ClapforNHS, which saw millions of Britons applauding National Health Service staff last Thursday.



He said: "I hope that tomorrow, we can bring all communities in Singapore together as a sign of unity in times of trouble and allow everyone helping us through this difficult time to know we are right behind them in support of their efforts."

Details of The Courage Fund COVID-19 relief schemes and how people can apply are at www.ncss.gov.sg/thecouragefund















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