War room challenge for Japan begins in bedroom

Population decline poses hurdle to its growing military assertiveness

By William Choong, The Straits Times, 4 May 2012

THE landmark deal announced by the United States and Japan over basing arrangements for the island of Okinawa is proof yet again of the staying power of their 60-year alliance.

After six years of protracted talks, the US agreed to move 9,000 US Marines from Okinawa to Guam and Hawaii.

The two countries said they would set up their first permanent training base in Guam or the Northern Mariana Islands. Mr Kurt Campbell, the US' top Asian diplomat, called the training proposal 'a very important step that has never been achieved before'.

Indeed, the proposal is highly significant for Japan, as a joint training facility would represent its first military installation on US territory. It also underscores a more important issue - the Japanese military's growing assertiveness.

For decades, Tokyo hewed to the Yoshida Doctrine. Introduced by post-war premier Shigeru Yoshida, it called on Japan to focus on economic development and leave security matters to Washington.

That, however, started to change around the turn of the century. In 2003, Japan deployed 600 troops to Iraq. Four years later, the Japanese Defence Agency became a full-fledged ministry.

Last December, Japan ended a 40-year ban on weapons exports. In April, it flexed its muscles when it warned that it would shoot down any missile fragments released during North Korea's controversial flight test of a long-range missile.

The inflection point for the Self Defence Force (SDF) came about in 2010, when Tokyo issued a National Defence Programme Guideline that essentially took on a more assertive stance.

Previously, the SDF had sought to dissuade potential enemies using a Basic Defence Forces concept. The SDF's maxim was simple: 'I exist, therefore I deter.'

In the 2010 paper, this was changed to 'dynamic deterrence'. Using highly flexible and deployable combat elements to address complex contingencies, the SDF's maxim was changed to: 'I can inflict nasty damage on potential enemies, therefore I deter.'

The logic behind a more muscular SDF is straightforward. In recent years, Japan has seen its security environment deteriorate. North Korea's nuclear and missile programmes continue to pose a threat. China's military casts a long shadow over Japan, while Russia remains a worry due to unresolved territorial disputes to Japan's north.

Writing in the book Japan's Remilitarisation, Japan analyst Christopher Hughes said Tokyo was on the path to becoming a 'normal' military power. It is set on a 'long-term trajectory' that will see it assume a more assertive regional and global role.

Beyond last week's Okinawa deal, what is more interesting is the stress on increased US-Japan military cooperation and on making the alliance 'more dynamic', says Prof Hughes in an e-mail.

Even so, Japan's remilitarisation is not problem-free, and might portend some dangers for regional security.

Some Asians still cringe at the memory of the Imperial Japanese Army's conquests during World War II.

Specifically, China is increasingly wary of Japan's military development. For the longest time, Chinese analysts saw American influence on Japan's military as a 'bottle cap' that crimped the latter's development. Now, however, the consensus is that US influence is more like an 'egg shell' - fostering Japanese power under American protection.

The most serious challenge for Japan and the SDF, however, lies not in the war room, but the bedroom. In essence, Japan is seeing a greying population that has failed to replace itself.

Analysts call this the 'perfect demographic storm'. Japan tops the global ranking across categories such as ageing, fertility decline and population contraction. Such problems resonate in Singapore where the total fertility rate hovers around 1.2 (Japan's is 1.39).

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what the dearth of new births would mean for Japan's military two decades down the road.

Japan's struggling private sector has seen people looking for jobs in the public sector and even the SDF. But the bad news in the long term is that population decline would 'make it difficult for the military to attract new recruits', says Professor Narushige Michishita, from the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

The SDF is already feeling the effects of population decline. Currently, 60 per cent of 52-year-old officers serve as lowly lieutenants and captains in the Ground SDF. These officers in Japan's 'dad's army' are 20 years older than counterparts in the US military who hold similar ranks.

Indeed, if demography is destiny, as French philosopher Auguste Comte once declared, Japan's demographic challenge will lead to worrying scenarios for Asia.

Writing in an essay titled The Setting Sun, a chapter in the recently released Population Decline And The Remaking Of Great Power Politics, US scholar Toshi Yoshihara maps out two.

In the first and more likely scenario, Japan depends more on the US. Such enhanced cooperation - or 'interoperability' in military jargon - serves as a force multiplier. But it will also raise the risk of Japan's entanglement in future conflicts, such as a US-China confrontation over Taiwan.

The worse-case scenario: when the challenge of demographics spurs nationalism that could intensify calls for Japan to develop an independent nuclear deterrent.

'Japanese observers have already begun to explore nuclear options that were once considered taboo... this nuclear scenario portends dangers for regional and global stability,' writes Prof Yoshihara.

Granted, it would be hard to divine Japan's demographically challenged future. Pressed by demographic challenges, ancient Sparta became more cautious in its outlook, but Athens more belligerent.

That said, Japan would need to address its demographic challenge soon.

The US has consistently called on Tokyo to 'show the flag' and 'put boots on the ground'. But Japan's demographic problem is a guillotine that cuts down its strategic options, write analysts Tomoko Tsunoda and Brad Glosserman: 'There will be no feet to put in those boots, nor hands to hold the flag.'