By Li Xueying, The Straits Times, 31 Jan 2013
HONG KONG - In 2007, then chief executive Donald Tsang outlined a vision for Hong Kong. It should have a population of 10 million to keep up with New York and London as a global financial centre, he said.
The city's population then was 6.9 million. Six years on, it has inched up to 7.2 million.
Over the same period, Singapore's population jumped from 4.5 million to 5.3 million. This is projected to increase to 6.9 million by 2030, according to a White Paper released on Tuesday.
The contrasting pictures between the two cities have experts here worried about the way forward for Hong Kong, often pitted as a rival to Singapore.
The South China Morning Post reported yesterday that Singapore's population plans have led to calls for Hong Kong's government to get its act together on population policy.
A public discussion is overdue, they say, and hard choices - such as whether to reverse a populist policy banning mainland babies from being born here - need to be made.
Three academics who sit on a steering committee on population headed by Chief Secretary Carrie Lam tell The Straits Times that Hong Kong is facing a demographic time bomb, with a low fertility rate, an ageing population and a shrinking labour force. The committee, which had its first meeting two weeks ago, is to recommend strategies.
But they doubt Hong Kong will open its doors to immigrants to a similar extent as in Singapore.
But they doubt Hong Kong will open its doors to immigrants to a similar extent as in Singapore.
"That is out of the question," said Professor Hau Kit Tai, pro vice-chancellor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Added sociologist Alfred Chan of Lingnan University: "Hong Kongers are monocultural and with the reactions to mainland visitors - not even immigrants - there is already a big headache.
"So my view is that it's not part of Hong Kong's history to import people, and perhaps our Filipino and Indonesian maids here represent the limit of what people would accept."
Just 5 per cent of Hong Kong's population are foreigners - mainly domestic helpers, as well as expatriates whose companies have to prove that they could not find local workers.
Among Hong Kongers, there are a few thousand foreign-born who are mainly artists and other skilled talents, said Prof Hau. There are about 217,000 mainlanders who have been allowed to settle here since 1997, subject to a daily quota of 150. Many are relatives of Hong Kongers.
Reflecting the controversial nature of the topic, the experts are divided on whether Hong Kong should allow more foreigners in.
Prof Hau believes the city's immediate challenge is not so much a population decline. Instead, "what is alarming is the change in the profile", he said.
The population is ageing fast, with those aged 65 and above expected to nearly triple to 2.56 million in 2041. The labour force will start shrinking after 2018.
Said Prof Hau: "Right now, we have to be thinking of how to provide services for the large number of older people who cannot sustain their lives."
But in the long term, increasing the number of foreigners is a tough question that has to be asked, said Prof Chan. He believes physical space can be made - whether it is by flattening hills, developing outlying islands, or even reclaiming land in the New Territories up to Shenzhen.
"The problem is not space, but the people's mindset," he said. "Sooner or later, to compete with Singapore, we need parallel policies."
Added demographer Paul Yip of Hong Kong University: "We need at least a conversation on whether we can accept lower economic growth as a trade-off."
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