Reuters, 10 Apr 2012
SOUTH KOREA - South Korea's liberal opposition, bolstered by the under-40s and power of social media, could spring a surprise win in this week's parliamentary elections despite opinion polls that show it tied with the ruling conservatives.
Experts say traditional pollsters base their projections on owners of fixed telephone lines, whereas people in their 20s and 30s, who form 37 per cent of the voting population in the world's most-wired country, rarely use them.
The young, more likely to carry a Samsung Galaxy or Apple iPhone in their pockets, are mostly liberal and their views are expressed and spread online, often via their smartphones.
"Views expressed in cyberspace are about 20 per cent favourable to us and 80 per cent against," said Mr Lee Jun Seok, a 27-year-old Harvard-educated computer expert brought in to help revamp the ruling conservative Saenuri Party's online presence.
"It's almost like as soon as you say something for our party, you come under attack."
The top conservative is presidential contender Park Geun Hye, who ranks eighth with about 180,000 followers, according to Korean-tweeters.com, a website on Twitter power.
On the other hand, a traditional Realmeter poll taken between March 26 and 30 showed 39.8 per cent support for the ruling conservatives, 30.5 per cent support for the main opposition Democrat United Party and 8.1 per cent for its coalition partner, the United Progressive Party.
At the end of last year, traditional polls had the conservatives trailing the opposition, but now suggest the ruling party has made a comeback. Experts said they were flawed.
"Random digit-dialling systems based on fixed lines rule out young people, workers who come home late and households that don't have landlines," said Mr Yoon Hee Woong from the Korea Society Opinion Institute, a research organisation.
"On Twitter, we are like birds talking to each other. That's something that can't be controlled," said Kim Mi Wha, 47, a television comedian with almost 290,000 Twitter followers. He is part of a band of celebrity super-tweeters embracing liberal causes.
Super-tweeters like Kim have already helped elect an independent activist as mayor of Seoul, ending conservative control over the capital last year.
Although polls had put the eventual winner, Mr Park Won Soon, ahead in the mayoral race, his victory was much more decisive than indicated.
Social media has also acted as a counterweight to the mainstream media, which is largely controlled by the huge conglomerates that dominate the world's 13th-largest economy.
It could prompt young voters who are concerned with issues, like growing income inequality, to swing behind the Democrat United Party that is opposed to a free-trade agreement with the United States and wants restrictions on big businesses.
The Saenuri Party has responded by boosting its social- media credentials, but admits it faces an uphill battle.
South Korea's parliamentary elections are essentially a dry run for the powerful presidency.
That vote in December will be the key test of whether the Twitter-using liberals can turn their lock on cyberspace into hard political power.
Mr Yu Chang Ju, who helped manage Mr Park's election win as Seoul mayor and now advises him on new-media strategy, said the number of Twitter users will double by the time of the presidential election to about 10 million, or about one fifth of the population.
"This year's elections are going to be the SNS (social networking sites) users' group versus non-SNS group," said Dr Huh Chang Deog, a sociology professor at Yeungnam University.
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