Hougang By-election: When?

There will be a by-election, the Prime Minister has said. Insight takes a closer look at the factors he has to weigh in deciding when to call it

By Andrea Ong, The Straits Times, 13 Apr 2012

TODAY, the Elections Department updates its voter rolls to reflect the new addresses of those who moved recently.

In recent weeks, it has also issued notices on a change of address for the San Francisco polling station, and to ask Singaporeans abroad to register early as overseas voters.

For Hougang residents and other observers eagerly reading the tea leaves, these are signs taking them one step closer to a widely anticipated by-election.

While civil servants have been laying the groundwork for the third polling day since last May, the Prime Minister himself seems to be mulling over when best to head to the polls.

In a recent interview, PM Lee Hsien Loong observed that a 'certain stability' has been restored to Singaporeans' mood and expectations in the 11 months since the watershed general election of May 2011. There is a risk that a by-election might reverse that process.

PM Lee has maintained all along that in deciding the by-election's timing, he has to consider not only the well-being of Hougang residents but also issues on the national agenda and the international backdrop 'that affects our prosperity and security'.

The decision remains a politically charged one, since the outcome of any election has implications for the country, and for Mr Lee himself as Prime Minister and secretary-general of the ruling People's Action Party (PAP).

Insight takes a closer look at the factors that weigh in on this decision.

Getting back to work

SINCE GE 2011, the Government has been busy fixing shortfalls in public housing, transport and health, which had been sources of widespread frustration. It has also moved quickly to review and reduce ministers' salaries - a bugbear of many.

There is a danger that a by-election could reopen these issues. That is especially so in areas where the fixes need time to take effect. Crowded trains, for example, will remain a reality until new trains and a new signalling system are in place in two to three years' time.

The major train disruptions of last December have also raised some fresh doubts about the public transport system. An eight-week inquiry into the most major of these disruptions is set to start next Monday.

However, Minister of State for Trade and Industry Teo Ser Luck does not think the inquiry will have a big bearing on the by-election's timing.

He says what the public wants is the Government's assurance that it will work hard to prevent further disruptions, which Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew gave in Parliament this week.

Beyond short-term issues that need addressing, the Government is also looking ahead and charting new directions in two key areas.

The first is the building of an inclusive society through the raising of incomes and productivity, and the forging of a new consensus in which those who are able help those most in danger of being left behind.

The second is the drawing up of a new population strategy to address two key demographic challenges, namely an ageing population and a lack of babies born here.

The measures contained in this year's Budget, which Parliament passed last month, are key to the ongoing work of building an inclusive society.

That is why several PAP MPs are of the view that PM Lee will want to give these new measures a chance to take effect, before proceeding into yet another season of electoral campaigning.

Articulating this view, Ang Mo Kio GRC MP Inderjit Singh says: 'We just passed the Budget and there are a number of things and new initiatives the Government wants to do rather than get distracted from its work.'

The Budget measures will be rolled out progressively in the coming months. Among them are new dependency ratio ceilings to tighten the inflow of foreign workers, which kick in in July, and GST vouchers to help the lower-income and older Singaporeans with rising living costs, which will be given out in August.

The second big-ticket item on this year's national agenda is a White Paper on population issues, which is expected to be tabled in Parliament by year's end.

Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean has described population as the 'most critical' issue for Singapore in the long run. PM Lee will not want the Hougang by-election to divert attention away from issues that his Government has flagged as top national priorities.

Summing up these sentiments, veteran PAP MP Charles Chong, who represents Joo Chiat, says: 'You don't want people to be in a constant state of election fever. PM has committed to a by-election. We can assume that he's a reasonable person who will call the election in a reasonable period of time. So we should get down to work' on the business of governing.

Former Nominated MP Zulkifli Baharudin agrees, adding that it would be unfortunate if the by-election ended up becoming a referendum on things already settled in last year's general election.

'They've already got the mandate, let's proceed with it,' he says.

Making it count

THE Hougang by-election is the first in Singapore's history to have been triggered by an opposition party's decision to expel one of its sitting MPs.

The Workers' Party (WP) caused the Hougang seat to be vacated when it sacked Mr Yaw Shin Leong on Feb 14 for refusing to account to the party leadership for his behaviour, including allegedly having extramarital affairs.

On March 9, when WP chairman Sylvia Lim tried to pressure PM Lee to call a by-election by asking if he felt Hougang voters were under-represented in Parliament, PM Lee turned the tables on her and replied that the WP should have considered that before deciding to expel Mr Yaw.

PM Lee said then: 'If we are in this situation today, it is because the Workers' Party has caused this situation to happen knowing the consequences.'

Mr Chong, the PAP veteran, says in timing the by-election, PM Lee will want to 'strike a delicate balance' between waiting long enough for Hougang residents to realise that it was the result of the WP's actions, but not so long that the delay begins to seem unreasonable.

The PAP's aim, says Mr Chong, must be to ensure 'the WP does not get political mileage out of its misstep in choosing its candidate'.

The Hougang seat is the WP's to lose. It has held the single-member constituency since 1991, and retained it last May when WP chief Low Thia Khiang left his stronghold to contest in Aljunied GRC.

Even though Mr Low's chosen successor, Mr Yaw, has let Hougang residents down in a big way by leaving the country barely 10 months after winning his parliamentary seat, most observers would regard Hougang as a tough fight for the PAP.

Mr Teo, the Minister of State who is also a member of the PAP's central executive committee, says: 'Hougang residents have voted for the same MP for many years'.

He expects the upcoming election there to be centred on 'very local, ground-driven kind of political campaigning'.

At the same time, the Hougang saga also opens up a new opportunity for the Prime Minister to refresh his Cabinet, says Mr Basskaran Nair, adjunct associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

'The Hougang by-election is in a sense a gift, an opportunity to cluster other by-elections to bring about the renewal of the PAP leadership,' Mr Nair says.

That is not a decision to be undertaken lightly, for several reasons.

The first is that the Prime Minister will have to decide where to call these other by-elections, with no guarantee that the PAP team there will fare better than they did last May.

The second is that he will have to decide which MPs to retire. But PM Lee's predecessor took such a step in 1992. That December, then-Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong called a by-election in his Marine Parade GRC to induct into politics Mr Teo Chee Hean, who is now Deputy Prime Minister.

This time, the money is on PM Lee calling a by-election in his Ang Mo Kio GRC, to bring in NTUC deputy secretary-general Ong Ye Kung. Mr Ong has been described as a potential member of Singapore's fourth-generation leadership. He was fielded last year in Aljunied GRC, where the PAP team lost to the WP.

On the prospect of a by-election in Ang Mo Kio, retired PAP backbencher Tan Cheng Bock posted on his Facebook page earlier this week: 'Ang Mo Kio residents voted convincingly for him and his team in 2011, how will they feel about being put to the test again? Will PM be prepared to take this risk?'

Mr Singh, a long-time member of PM Lee's Ang Mo Kio GRC team, believes that if the Prime Minister wants to call a by-election to renew the PAP leadership, he will choose to do so in his own constituency.

'It's something we should not do if not necessary. But if there are other important things on the national agenda like bringing in new leaders, he will have to explain to Ang Mo Kio residents,' Mr Singh says.

Other constituencies that have been tossed up as possible sites for by-elections include PAP strongholds like Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC, Sembawang GRC and Tanjong Pagar GRC.

There are various options before PM Lee at this point.

As he mulls over them, the by-election waiting game continues..

How Hougang compares to past by-elections

By-elections have been held in 31 constituencies since self-governance in 1959. Of these, the PAP lost three times: Hong Lim in 1961 and Anson in 1961 and 1981.

1960s

From 1959 to Independence in 1965, by-elections were nail-biting fights which saw the People's Action Party (PAP) tussle with other parties to hang on to its dominance in Parliament.

In April 1961, former national development minister Ong Eng Guan ran as an independent in Hong Lim after being expelled from the PAP. He won handsomely against the PAP's Jek Yeun Thong. Three months later, the Workers' Party's (WP) David Marshall won Anson in a by-election following the death of a PAP assemblyman.

In 1961, the PAP expelled 13 members who went on to form Barisan Sosialis. A year later, labour minister Ahmad Ibrahim died, vacating his Sembawang seat. The PAP was left with 25 seats against 25 opposition assemblymen. Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew did not call a by-election in Sembawang. Instead, he called a general election one year later when the PAP regained its majority.

In June 1965, Mr Ong quit politics, paving the way for a by-election in Hong Lim. That by-election took on national significance in the wake of communal riots the year before. The PAP's victory over Barisan was seen as a mark of the people's support for the party.

After separation, Mr Lee moved a motion to revoke a clause in the Constitution which set a three-month deadline for by-elections to be called.

1970s

The 1970s marked the start of a 'safe era' for the PAP. Against a backdrop of rapid economic growth, the PAP called several by-elections to swiftly inject talented new blood into its ranks.

In 1970, 1977 and 1979, by-elections were called in 14 seats after older MPs fell ill or resigned. Several Cabinet heavyweights entered Parliament through by-elections, including Dr Tony Tan, Mr Howe Yoon Chong, Mr Teh Cheang Wan and Mr Lim Chee Onn.

1980s

Circumstances changed after the PAP lost the Anson by-election in 1981. That election was called less than 24 hours after Anson MP Devan Nair resigned from the PAP in anticipation of becoming President.

In a shock defeat, the PAP's Pang Kim Hin lost to WP chief J.B. Jeyaretnam. Mr Lee later recounted in his memoirs that he had left the Anson campaign to then Minister for Trade and Industry Goh Chok Tong and other younger leaders.

'I was disturbed, not by the defeat, but because I had no signal from Goh that we might lose,' Mr Lee wrote in his memoirs.

There were no by-elections for the rest of the decade, even when three single-member constituencies were vacated.

These were when Havelock MP Hon Sui Sen died in 1983, and when Mr Jeyaretnam was disqualified from Parliament and Mr Teh Cheang Wan committed suicide, both in 1986.

1990s

All vacated seats since 1990 have been in group representation constituencies (GRCs), a system introduced in 1988.

The Government's position is that when a GRC seat falls vacant, other MPs in the GRC can help to look after affected constituents.

That was the case on five occasions when GRC seats were vacated in 1993, 1999, 2008 and 2010.

In 1992, however, then Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong called a by-election in his Marine Parade GRC to induct Rear-Admiral Teo Chee Hean into politics. At the time, both deputy prime ministers had cancer and there was an acute need for new leaders.

Where Hougang stands

The Hougang by-election marks the first time in 31 years that a by-election is being held in a single-member constituency, and the first time since Independence that a by-election is being called in an opposition ward.

In a 2008 debate in Parliament on a motion on by-elections, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong explained his stand. He said that under the Singapore system, voters elect not just an MP but a party which can form the government.

On that basis, if a seat falls vacant, 'it is the party's duty to look after its constituents until such time as an election is called'.

PM Lee also said: 'As for what happens if an opposition constituency falls vacant, I have many options. I could call a by-election or I could allow some other opposition MP to cover for him... We do that for PAP constituencies and we will do the same for the opposition constituencies as well.'

This year, however, PM Lee declared his intention to call a by-election just weeks after the Hougang seat was vacated.

Noting that MPs had also asked if a by-election would be called on previous occasions when seats were vacated, Professor Thio Li-ann of the National University of Singapore says the Hougang case shows a 'quicker need to respond' on the part of the Government to a repoliticised and Internet-savvy electorate.

The by-election has also sparked a court case where a Hougang resident is seeking to get the High Court to declare that the Prime Minister does not have unfettered discretion in deciding whether and when to call by-elections.

'With the repoliticisation of Singapore, there is a greater and clearer demand from sectors of society to have by-elections,' says Prof Thio.