More take trains, buses as car numbers dwindle

Record 6.65m trips a day amid drive to get more to use public transport
By Christopher Tan, Senior Transport Correspondent, The Straits Times, 28 Feb 2015

PUBLIC transport ridership grew last year by 4.6 per cent to hit a record 6.65 million trips per day as the population grew and the number of cars shrank.

It also came amid efforts by the Government to steer people towards buses and trains.

The Land Transport Authority, in response to press queries, said MRT patronage grew the most, with average daily ridership rising by 5.3 per cent to 2.76 million.

Bus ridership followed with a 4.2 per cent growth to 3.75 million. LRT numbers climbed by 3.8 per cent to 137,000.

Meanwhile, taxi ridership also hit a record of 1.02 million last year, up 5.5 per cent from 2013.

Earlier this week, The Straits Times reported that Singapore's car population had shrunk to a four-year low.

Responding to the twin developments, Government Parliamentary Committee for Transport chairman Cedric Foo said: "This is good news. We are headed in the right direction.

"Higher public transport ridership and lower number of cars both augur well for a sustainable transport profile in our small city-state.

"We must remain focused to improve commuter experience on public transport and to keep fares affordable."

Others wondered if the trend is the result of "push" or "pull" factors.

Mr Vignesh Naidu Louis, a research associate at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said: "The increase in public transport ridership can be seen as a testament to the Government's commitment to ensuring an improvement in service quality.

"But I would be cautious with overemphasising that view as we must also account for the increasing cost of cars. Last year, COE (certificate of entitlement) prices were high and the Government introduced a revised tax rate for cars."

He said the impact of these policies must not be overlooked while assessing the rise in ridership. To him, the question was: Were people taking public transport because it had improved or was it because they had no choice?

For commuter Daniel Boon, 50, it has been more push than pull. The head of a voluntary welfare organisation gave up driving when repair bills soared.

He said: "Our public transport is good. I've travelled in Europe, Asia and the US, and I feel ours is one of the best."

Over the last few years, new MRT lines have opened, train frequencies have risen, and 550 additional buses under the tax-funded Bus Service Enhancement Programme were injected into the fleet as of last year.

The introduction of free travel during off-peak hours, cheaper unlimited concession cards, and the launch of smartphone bus arrival information are among the other "pull" factors.

For some commuters, however, turning to public transport has not been by choice, given that COE premiums hovered between $60,000 and $78,000 for small cars last year owing to a tight COE supply.

"I want a car, but it is too expensive," said Mr Liu Kian Seng, 45, who takes public transport daily from his Choa Chu Kang flat to his workplace in Jurong.

"Now I take at least one hour and 15 minutes to get to work, and I have to change lines and buses four times," added the production leader in an oil and gas company.

Fewer cars on the road as COEs play catch-up
By Christopher Tan, Senior Transport Correspondent, The Straits Times, 26 Feb 2015

SINGAPORE'S private car population has fallen to its lowest level since 2011, and the shrinkage could continue.

The latest available figures from the Land Transport Authority show that there were 598,219 cars as of the end of last month - down from 600,176 last year. The number stood at 607,292 in 2013, and 605,149 in 2012.

The car population is now at its lowest since 2011, when there were 592,361 cars on the road.

The shrinkage is a rare occurrence in Singapore, where a quota system allows the vehicle population to grow annually at a pre-determined rate.

Observers said the contraction is a sign that the supply of certificates of entitlement (COEs) is lagging behind actual replacement demand.

Since 2010, COE supply has been formulated largely by the number of cars scrapped in the preceding months. This often does not correspond with the number of cars scrapped in the following months. For instance, last year's May-July COE quota for cars was determined by the 7,083 cars scrapped from February to April. But actual scrappage from May to July was higher at 7,514.

Over time, this leads to a population shrinkage.

NUS Business School Associate Professor Chu Sing Fat said the shrinking Open category, which can be used for any vehicle type but ends up mainly for cars, also contributes to the phenomenon.

Mr Lee Hoe Lone, managing director at Audi agent Premium Automobiles, said: "It will be worse if they start holding back some COEs."

He was referring to a widely expected move by the Government to "save" some COEs arising from the 2015-17 supply bonanza for the next low-supply period starting from 2019.

"The writing is on the wall," said Dr Park Byung Joon, an urban transport management expert at UniSIM. "I do not see any other way to avoid having a few years of massive COE supply followed by a dry spell."

National University of Singapore transport researcher Lee Der Horng concurs, adding that "a more equalised COE supply between years is more healthy".

While motor traders agree that a peak-and-trough COE supply pattern is not desirable, they reckon an adjustment - by holding back some certificates - will not be well received by consumers who have been waiting for supply to surge.

"If they hold back 30 per cent of next year's supply, it could potentially mean 30,000 car-owning families giving up their cars," a trader said.

Jardine Cycle & Carriage managing director of motor operations Eric Chan suggested that Singapore could accommodate a higher vehicle population once the second generation of Electronic Road Pricing (ERP II) is up.

On top of time and location, ERP II can charge according to distance clocked. With the system, expected to be ready before 2020, Mr Chan said "we can have higher car registrations but fewer cars on the road".

But even if COE supplies are not tweaked, the car population is likely to shrink for a few more years if the current COE quota formula is not changed.

Observers pointed out that the Government aims to raise public transport's share of morning peak journeys to 70 per cent by 2020 - up from 63 per cent in 2013.